Who do you listen to for marketing and hedging advice? How do you pick to whom you listen?
There is no shortage of people trying to tell you how to sell your crop and how to protect yourself against losing the value of your crop during a bear market or missing out on the gains of a bull market.
Farmers can get a host of free markets newsletters shot out regularly by brokerages and traders, and there are lots of newsletters you can subscribe to for a bit of money.
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You can hire advisers to make your decisions for you or suggest decisions you might want to make.
But how do you figure out who to listen to and who to tune out?
I was thinking about this as I was attending a market outlook session at Manitoba Ag Days, along with a few hundred farmers.
It was one of three outlooks I attended that day. I also attended one the next day, and the week before at St Jean Farm Days I’d spoken with two other analysts who were giving market outlook and economics sessions.
Ag Days seemed like an analytical jamboree. Over here was Dustin Gabor of Grain Shark at the Manitoba Canola Growers meeting giving a technical outlook for the canola market, while in a nearby hallway at his firm’s booth, David Drozd of AgChieve was chatting with a gaggle of farmers wanting his technical take on grain prices.
Also in attendance was Bruce Burnett, the chief markets and crop conditions analyst with Glacier FarmMedia’s MarketsFarm, talking to farmers in one of the teeming passageways of the convention centre about the coming crop season and markets.
In a room in the centre of the Keystone Centre, futures and options specialist David Derwin of P.I. Financial and spreads and basis expert John DePape of FARMCo were explaining to farmers the different factors they needed to keep in mind for the coming year.
Brian Voth of intelliFARM spoke in one of amphitheatres (and sometimes sales rings), as he had the week before in the packed Knights of Columbus hall in St Jean.
In the same hall the next day I was delighted to see Errol Anderson give his mega-markets outlook because it gave me a chance to go over and say hi in person, after speaking with him by phone about every two weeks for almost 20 years.
For me, all this diversity of analysts is fun because I love following the markets and the different analytical takes on them. Partly because of my job and partly because of my native interests, I don’t find it bewildering to come across conflicting interpretations of the markets. I understand the underlying issues enough to enjoy grappling with different takes on the same issue or idea.
But I imagine it must be confounding for those not personally interested in market complexities hearing half a dozen contrasting views on what the average for new crop canola prices is likely to be. Some guys just want to hear a trigger price, and being told three differing ones doesn’t help with the pulling.
Other guys just want to hear dreamy predictions of super-high prices or be scared by predictions of calamitous selloffs.
So what’s a guy to do about this?
To me, it makes sense that if you’re going to follow an analyst, actually follow them and do what they suggest. There’s no point paying somebody for advice and then ignoring it. That’s especially true if you’re paying a bunch for intensive advice that goes beyond simply subscribing to a newsletter.
For those who just like hearing bullish or bearish predictions, figure out who tends to be bullish or bearish and follow them, even if it’s just to confirm your own biases.
The worst thing most producers could do would be to attend one markets outlook session, regardless of who it is, and just because it fits their schedule, and take that presentation as gospel.
But best of all would be to catch as many market outlooks you can, read as many analyses as you can and enjoy it all. Make it a pleasure. Make it a hobby.
Then you’ll know enough to make your own choices, or understand why you’re leaving it to a particular analyst or adviser to make the calls for you.
There’s lots of choice out there. Take advantage of it.
