Long-season crops risky | Conditions could cause prairie farmers to put off experiment
Many western Canadian farmers’ dreams of growing corn and soybeans this year are melting as the snow slowly disappears and cold prairie soil gradually warms.
The long season crops are starting to look like a risk in many areas, even to farmers keen to try them just a couple of months ago.
“A lot of guys who were thinking of growing soybeans for the first time just won’t,” said Agri-Trend Marketing adviser Brian Voth of Ste. Agathe, Man.
“The guys that were considering growing corn for the first time are out.”
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For many, the risk is too big to plant a new crop that needs a lot of heat and growing days in a year when seeding in many places won’t begin before mid-May.
“There are probably a few guys who will back out of it,” said Manitoba Corn Growers Association agronomist Morgan Cott.
“We’re not hoping for decreased acres, but we’ll probably get decreased acres, especially outside the Red River Valley.”
Soybeans and corn have steadily moved into Manitoba’s Red River Valley for 10 years. The area, an extension of what the U.S. calls the Midwest, is warmer than the rest of the Prairies.
Thanks to new shorter season varieties, the crops have taken area from other crops from Minnesota through eastern North Dakota up into Manitoba.
Only in the past few years have farmers outside the Red River Valley dared to grow them because of fears about frost coming before crops are mature.
However, recent relatively open falls allowed Prairies farmers to harvest good crops of corn and soybeans.
As well, predictions that climate change will make the Prairies permanently warmer encouraged farmers to consider taking the risk.
Until a few weeks ago, many expected Manitoba farmers to seed more than one million acres of soybeans, up 200,000 acres from last year, and 300,000 acres of corn, up from about 275,000. Now, some think acreage will actully fall.
Saskatchewan farmers were expected to seed tens of thousands of soybean acres in 2013, with heat units in southeastern and southwestern parts adequate for shortest season varieties.
However, snow still blankets many fields, soil is cold and the short-term forecast is for cool weather.
“It gets a little sticky if you can’t put it in by the first couple of weeks of May,” said Cott.
“Guys get a little more nervous.”
In warm areas around Carman and Winkler in Manitoba, farmers can grow corn varieties that require up to 2,400 heat units and generally get a crop before frost strikes.
However, most areas outside the valley get only 2,300 units, so varieties needing more than 2,200 seem risky.
Most soybean varieties designed for the Prairies require 118 days to maturity on average, which means almost four months of average growing conditions.
That would require crops to be unmolested from mid-May seeding until harvest in early September. That seems reasonable, if at the edge of probable.
However, soybeans face another problem this spring. Seeds planted into cold soil tend to fare poorly, with many failing to produce viable plants.
Many farmers doubt their soil will warm up enough by mid-May to provide such a seed bed for the crop.
“If you get an early frost, there’s going to be a lot of trouble,” said Manitoba Pulse Growers Association acting executive director Michael Reimer.
“Last year, with all the heat we had, it let a lot of soybeans finish off in some of the shorter season areas.”
May 15 is now many farmers’ target seeding date, Reimer said. However, soil temperatures and predicted flooding could delay that greatly, in which case acreage will fall.
Frost affects corn and soybeans differently.
Soybeans have various windows when frost causes more damage, with some late frost being more damaging than earlier frost.
Corn can have its quality and bushel weight ravaged by frost that strikes before the kernels are mature.
However, neither does well if frost hits, so many prairie farmers who considered seeding them probably won’t, many say.
“There’s definitely talk about some of those acres leaking out, especially with corn,” said Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
“Almost everybody’s working on Plan B. They haven’t necessarily implemented it yet, but they’re ready in case they have to shift gears.”
