CESME, Turkey — If desi chickpea production falters in any of the main production regions, there will once again be strong demand for Canadian yellow peas, say analysts.
G. Chandrashekhar, a global agribusiness specialist from India, is forecasting 9.95 million tonnes of global desi chickpea production in 2016-17, up seven percent from the current crop year.
His forecast is predicated on India and Australia receiving timely rains. If that doesn’t happen, growers can expect another year of sky-high chickpea prices, which will lead to strong yellow pea demand because the crop is a cheap substitute for desi chickpeas.
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All eyes are on India, which accounts for 75 to 80 percent of the world’s desi chickpea production.
The Indian government has set a target of 9.5 million tonnes of total chickpea production for 2016-17. Chickpeas are planted in November and harvested in February and March.
“Under the present circumstances I don’t see this target being achieved at all,” Chandrashekhar told delegates attending the 2016 Global Pulse Convention.
He believes that under ideal conditions there is an “outside chance” of India producing 8.5 million tonnes of chickpeas, including 7.65 million tonnes of desis.
The hope is that a La Nina weather system will develop causing above average monsoon rainfall.
Chandrashekhar has penciled in 900,000 tonnes of Australian production.
Peter Wilson, chief executive officer of AGT Foods Australia, said the next two weeks will tell the tale for the Australian crop.
He said there is the potential for 1.6 million tonnes of production but that would require significant precipitation.
Considering that half of the crop is planted in ground where subsoil moisture is inadequate he believes 700,000 to 900,000 tonnes is more likely.
If that is the case, desi prices could be “off to the races” because Australia is completely sold out of the crop and needs a crop bigger than 900,000 tonnes.
Wilson noted that today’s new crop prices of about US$830 per tonne are well above where they were at the same time last year. Old crop prices have rallied to $1,100 per tonne.
“We can rally just as hard (this year) if we don’t get this rain,” he said.
Muhammad Ahmed, chief executive officer of AWAM Group of Companies, a leading importer and broker of pulses in Pakistan, took issue with Chandrashekhar’s forecast for 600,000 tonnes of desi production in Pakistan.
He said it will be closer to 325,000 tonnes, down from 560,000 tonnes the previous year.
Chandrashekhar said if India gets the big crop it is hoping for, it will likely import 700,000 tonnes of desi chickpeas in 2016-17, a 30 percent decline from the previous year.
That would take the pressure off of desi chickpea prices in that country.
“My sense is the market should not expect the fancy prices of 2015 to prevail again in the second half of 2016,” he said.
However, Chandrashekhar said global desi supplies will still be tight because there will be no carryout of the crop heading into 2016-17 versus 700,000 tonnes a year ago at this time.
And if there is a disappointing harvest in India or Australia, desi prices could once again be sky high.
“If chickpea prices rise higher there will be more consumption and more demand for yellow peas,” he said.
Most of the panelists expect desi chickpea prices to remain firm for the next three to four months and then drop by $100 to $150 per tonne when the Australian crop is harvested.
Ahmed is forecasting prices in the range of $850 to $950 per tonne over the next three to six months.
