Russia now sells more peas to China than Canada

Canada used to have a 95 to 97 per cent market share but that has dropped to 44. 6 per cent

SASKATOON — Russia has officially displaced Canada as the top exporter of peas to China.
Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters said the country shipped 1.13 million tonnes of the crop to that market in 2023-24, according to a Reuters story.
That gave it a 49.1 per cent market share compared to Canada’s 44.6 per cent.
Canada used to have a stranglehold on the Chinese market with a 95 to 97 per cent market share.
“Without question, traditional trade flows and market shares are changing,” Pulse Canada president Greg Cherewyk said in an email during a recent trade mission to China.
He noted that Russian peas were selling for a US$40 to $50 per tonne discount to Canadian peas in November of 2023, just prior to the reopening of the Indian market.
That helped Russian peas attract the attention of China’s feed sector. It is a market that is highly price conscious and less discerning than the food market when it comes to quality.
“Canada remains the preferred supplier to the food, protein fractionation and vermicelli noodle markets,” said Cherewyk.
He said Canadian yellow peas did not price into feed markets in China last year due to low inventories in Canada and strong renewed demand from India.
“This is where Russia made gains in the market,” said Cherewyk.
“Russian pea quality is quite variable with dirt tag and mould often mentioned as main concerns.”
Sergey Pluzhnikov, head of sales for Temporia Capital Company and founder of Russian Pulses Analytics, said Russia’s peas cover the quality gamut.
Some shipments have reduced content of foreign material admixture, broken grains or grains of different colour.
“Therefore, with minimal cleaning, the peas could be sent for (food) processing,” he said in a text message.
Other shipments containing broken and green seeds have made their way to feed channels.
He has heard from a source in China that about 60 per cent of Russia’s peas were used for feed, with the remaining 40 per cent going to the fractionation sector.
“I’ll tell you, I was very pleased with his assessment,” said Pluzhnikov.
Russia exported about three million tonnes of peas in 2023-24. Pluzhnikov doesn’t know how much the country will ship in 2024-25, but China and India are going to be the priority markets.
There will “unequivocally” be enough peas to match last year’s China program of 1.13 million tonnes, but India, Turkey and Pakistan will also be competing for volumes, so China may have to pay up.
Traders who recently spoke to the Western Producer said Russia will have a vastly reduced export program this year, with estimates ranging from 1.75 to 2.5 million tonnes.
Cherewyk said this year’s export picture will hinge on how the remainder of the growing season progresses in Canada and Russia and how India’s kharif season crops turn out leading up to the Oct. 31 deadline for ending its exemption on pea import duties.
Stat Publishing is forecasting 2.9 million tonnes of Canadian pea production and 2.29 million tonnes of exports in 2024-25.
The other big market factor is the new antidumping duties that the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed on imported Chinese pea protein June 27. The duties range from 127 to 626 per cent.
Cherewyk said that will undoubtedly affect Chinese pea protein exports. However, Pulse Canada is working with China on “an aggressive market development effort” to find different end use opportunities for that product.
Pluzhnikov said harvest has just begun in Russia, and there appears to be a decrease in yields in southern Russia. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean a smaller national crop.
“Let’s see how central Russia, the Volga region, Altai and Siberia will perform,” he said.
There are no massive carryover stocks, so some traders are forecasting a drop in exports of 500,000 tonnes or more compared to last year, said Pluzhnikov.
However, there are 1.5 to two million tonnes of domestic consumption of peas in Russia, which, if necessary, can be replaced in diets with other crops.
That could free up more peas for export.
“We can act flexibly, changing our strategy depending on the circumstances,” he said.