The flooded fields of the Red River Valley aren’t helping anybody’s crop prices yet.
Crop marketing specialists say the reduction in seeded acreage is being played off in buyers’ minds by the likelihood of increased yields.
“Outside of the flooded patches, fields got a lot of rain, and that improves the yield potential. It’s an offsetting factor,” said Brian Clancey of Stat Publishing, a special crops research firm.
“For the first time in a long time I’m (forecasting) a yield above the average (for Western Canada).”
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The Red River Valley has a different crop profile than most of the Prairies. There are larger acreages of edible beans, flax and milling oats than in other areas, and Red River Valley conditions have a big impact on overall production of these crops in North America.
Well above average rainfall in May and June has left some fields along the valley in Manitoba and North Dakota too wet to seed, or in danger of being flooded out. Some farmers’ crops are rotting away in saturated soil.
Alvin Klassen of Bison Commodities in Winkler, Man., thinks only about 15 percent of planned bean acreage was seeded this spring. And unlike last year, when many bean crops were seeded into soils that couldn’t take heavy rains, this year farmers placed their edible bean acres more strategically.
“We have bean on ground that can deal with adverse weather,” said Klassen. “There’s a good stand right now.”
Clancey thinks most special crops were successfully seeded this spring, with acreage losses tending to go to bigger acreage crops like canola. Soybean acreage is also likely to fall significantly.
Flax was seeded early because farmers want to be able to harvest early and get the usual early-season sales premium, he said, so those acres escaped most of the problems from the latest rains.
With losses in oats, flax and beans being marginal, and better yield prospects lifting successfully seeded acres, there isn’t much chance for a weather rally because of the saturated conditions in the Red River Valley. But Clancey said if signs appear that suggest it will be a much wetter than average summer, then a fear factor could enter the market and drive prices up.
But for some crops such as edible beans, he thinks the potential is limited anyway. Regardless of production in Manitoba and North
Dakota, “the world is not short of beans.”
But Klassen said Manitoba growers will benefit if bad conditions persist in North Dakota. Earlier this spring farmers in that state were planning to increase their acreage by about 30 percent, but many who have not been able to seed are turning that acreage over to shorter season crops. North Dakota usually has three times as many acres of edible beans as Manitoba.
“We’re now past the point of seeding any more edible beans,” said Klassen.
Instead of a large increase, North Dakota acreage should be the same as last year, which will allow Manitoba’s edible beans to fill any excess demand.
“It’ll create a lot of potential for marketing,” he said. “They lost a lot of acreage opportunity because of the water, and that’s good for us.”
