Growers made a wise choice in the type of lentils they planted this year, says a pulse crop analyst.
Farmers planted 2.46 million acres of the crop, according to Statistics Canada, up substantially from the 2.06 million acres they intended to plant when surveyed in March.
It’s in line with analyst expectations because of the recent strength in lentil prices.
“Quite a bit of that surge in acres from the intentions went into reds,” said Chuck Penner, an analyst with LeftField Commodity Research.
“We have significantly more reds than we did last year.”
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Growers planted an estimated 1.23 million acres of reds, up from 950,000 acres last year. It is the opposite scenario for large greens with growers planting 820,000 acres, down from 1.23 million acres last year.
Penner said that makes sense because there is strong demand for red lentils stemming from South Asia.
“We got more lentils where we can use them and fewer lentils where it’s harder to expand export demand, so overall it’s probably an ideal kind of a split,” he said.
Farmers planted 3.37 million acres of peas, which is nearly identical to the 3.34 million acres planted last year. Once again, it is the split that is interesting.
Growers in Saskatchewan planted an estimated 455,000 acres of green peas, up substantially from the 300,000 acres grown last year.
“We heard some stories that there’s no seed available. Well, I guess there was,” said Penner.
Statistics Canada doesn’t have a green pea number for Alberta, but the province’s growers planted 1.08 million acres of peas, 885,000 acres of which were yellow, so it can be assumed there will be a substantial amount of greens in that province as well.
Penner said that is a little worrisome, but almost no green peas are left in the system so it shouldn’t be too bearish for prices.
Farmers planted 2.63 million acres of yellow peas, down from 2.9 million acres last year despite strong projected demand for the crop.
“I think we’re actually going to see a fair amount of (price) support from this number,” said Penner.
He expects strong demand for yellow peas from India, despite the current lull caused by the weak rupee.
Penner expects the green/yellow pea price differential to narrow in the coming months as green prices fall and yellow prices strengthen.
He was surprised by the estimate of 205,000 acres of Saskatchewan chickpeas, up from March intentions of 185,000 acres. He had heard anecdotal reports of acreage dropping.
“I’m not going to hang my hat on that number too much, but right now it’s the only number that’s out there.”
The number could add weight to already heavy global chickpea markets if it is accurate.
Growers planted an estimated 209,000 acres of beans, down from 300,000 acres last year.
“It’s bullish for beans, but it was pretty much expected,” said Penner.
The canaryseed number was another surprise. Statistics Canada estimates 165,000 acres, down from March intentions of 190,000 acres. Penner was expecting an increase because of late planting.
Estimates are often wrong for small acreage crops, and he is skeptical of the canaryseed number.
“We haven’t seen movement in pricing, which tells us there is more canaryseed out there. Somehow (processors) can keep buying it at about 27 cents, buying all they need.”
The mustard number seems about right. Statistics Canada is forecasting 235,000 acres, which is close to last year’s 240,000 acres.
