Recent rain has helped create ideal conditions across most of the Prairies and the Canadian Wheat Board says only a huge weather problem would cause a below-average crop now.
The Prairies seem set for an average or above average crop, said CWB analyst Bruce Burnett.
“The only things that would change this (prediction) are very low probability events, like another really early freeze.”
The Prairies have experienced one of the best early growing seasons in years. Not only have well-placed rain storms given most areas ideal soil moisture conditions heading into the hot days of summer, but hotter than average days through seeding and early development have helped crops advance more than usual.
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That means the flowering period will be less likely to be affected by the scorching days of summer and the crop should be mature before frost.
“Even if it does turn dry, we’ll still be looking at a close to average crop in terms of wheat production,” he said.
Winter wheat in southern areas will probably be harvested in late July, a couple of weeks ahead of usual, the board believes.
It projects an all-wheat crop of 21 million to 25.2 million tonnes, with 23.6 million most likely. The five-year average is 20.7 million tonnes and last year’s crop was 24.8 million.
The durum crop is expected to range from 3.4 million to 4.3 million tonnes, substantially smaller than last year’s huge 5.9 million tonne crop due mainly to reduced acreage.
Farmers are looking at average yields for all-wheat of 31.7 to 38.1 bushels per acre, with 35.7 bu. per acre the most likely result.
The good news does not extend to every growing area. Parts of northeastern Saskatchewan, for example, have been flooded and either not seeded, or had crops drowned out or damaged.
That may create a marketing opportunity for some, Burnett acknowledged, because northeastern Saskatchewan normally seeds a large portion of the six-row malting barley crop.
Farmers who do get a good crop of six-row might have a better shot at selling it for malting.
Farm marketing adviser John Duvenaud said conditions are good, but noted July is sometimes surprising.
“Three weeks from now everything might be different.”
