The U.S. spring wheat crop is late but looks great, according to a group that toured 433 fields in North Dakota.
“I would expect we’re going to see pretty good yields,” said Ben Handcock, executive vice-president of the U.S. Wheat Quality Council, which organized the tour.
He also believes this could be one of the rare years when high protein levels accompany good yields.
“So I think we’ve got a pretty good crop coming.”
Spring wheat yields will average 44.9 bushels per acre based on the observations of 74 people who crisscrossed the state last week.
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Handcock said the annual tour of the state, which is home to 47 percent of this year’s U.S. spring wheat crop, usually produces a yield estimate that is “very, very close” to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August estimate.
The tour’s yield forecast is three bu. higher than the USDA’s July spring wheat yield estimate.
Arlan Suderman, senior market analyst with Water Street Advisory, said the tour findings provided relief to a market that was concerned about dryness in eastern North Dakota, but it wasn’t a market mover.
“Overall, it was more an affirmation of trade position rather than anything that was going to dramatically change sentiment,” he said.
Handcock said the one big caveat for the forecast is that this year’s crop is extremely late.
“A lot of it was just flowering. I mean, it’s four or five weeks from harvest,” he said.
“Typically, if you’re four or five weeks from harvest, a lot of things can happen and most of them are bad.”
Farmers were already cutting the crop during last year’s tour, but that was an extremely early crop. Handcock said this one is probably two to three weeks behind normal crop development.
The next two weeks will be crucial because that’s when the heads will be filled. Any prolonged period of above 30 C temperatures would be disastrous.
“The forecast for the next 10 days is below normal temperature, so that should help it quite a bit,” Handcock said July 26.
“Most of the wheat will probably fill as long as it doesn’t get too hot.”
Handcock isn’t concerned about frost, and the crop appears to be free of disease because of dry conditions during flowering, which kept fusarium and scab at bay.
The 44.9 bu. per acre yield estimate is slightly higher than the previous five-year average of 43.3 bu. A strong yield usually means low protein levels, but this year could be an exception to the rule.
Handcock expects the crop should maintain protein levels at the desired 14 to 14.5 percent level as long as it doesn’t get too wet in the coming weeks.
Suderman said that would be ideal because global supplies of quality milling wheat are snug.
“It really looks like U.S. and Canadian hard red wheat will probably be at a premium over the next year,” he said.
The tour saw a lot of abandoned spring wheat fields in the extreme northern portion of North Dakota because of excessive spring moisture.
However, Handcock wasn’t ready to question the USDA’s estimate of 5.6 million acres of spring wheat for the state. Suderman has heard that 500,000 acres have been lost.
The USDA is forecasting almost 12 million acres of harvested spring wheat across the U.S., similar to 2012, and 13.96 million tonnes of production.
That could change when the department comes out with its new supply and demand estimates Aug. 12.
The tour also inspected 31 durum fields.
“It’s really hard to find durum anymore,” said Handcock.
The group is forecasting 41.7 bu. per acre, down from 42.4 in 2012 but well above the USDA’s July estimate of 38.3 bu.
The USDA is projecting 1.5 million acres of durum and 1.57 million tonnes of production. Last year’s crop was 2.1 million acres and 2.24 million tonnes.
Handcock said the durum crop is in the same shape as the spring wheat crop.
“It’s very immature, also. It’s very late,” he said.
