A big U.S. Department of Agriculture report is expected Nov. 8, the day after most of you get this paper.
So it is a good time to remind you that we provide constantly updated market information on our website at Producer.com and through our Twitter posts @westernproducer and @darcemcmillan.
We have our own market information and analysis at Producer.com as well as three times a day canola market updates from Commodity News Service and worldwide information from the Reuters wire service.
And once the crop markets close each afternoon, I sum up all the factors influencing the crop markets and post the story under the Daily News tab.
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The November USDA report is always highly anticipated because it comes as the American harvest is well underway and farmers have a good handle on what they will produce.
However, this report will have even more influence than normal because the October monthly report was cancelled during the U.S. government shutdown.
Crop futures fell this autumn on the realization that production is larger than expected and on the usual pressure from grain companies hedging what farmers sell off the combine.
Prices will rise or fall Nov. 8 depending on whether the USDA numbers are lower or higher than expectations.
The market expects the USDA will increase its estimates of U.S. corn and soybean yields and total production.
In a Reuters survey of analysts, the average estimate of U.S. corn production was 14.003 billion bushels based on an average yield of 158.933 bu. per acre and a harvested area of 88.097 million acres.
The USDA’s September report had production at 13.843 billion bu.
The poll’s soybean production estimate is 3.221 billion bu. based on a yield of 42.407 bu. per acre and a harvested area of 75.928 million acres.
In September, the USDA pegged the soybean crop at 3.149 billion bu.
Traders also expect the department will increase its export and consumption estimates because American soybeans and corn have been flying out the door to China and other international buyers.
With production and use up, the most interesting part will be the department’s expectations on ending stocks.
The average of a Reuters poll of analysts put U.S. corn stocks at 2.029 billion bu., up from the September USDA estimate of 1.855 billion bu.
The poll pegged soybean ending stocks at 172 million bu., up from the September USDA figure of 150 million bu.
Wheat ending stocks were 519 million bu. in the poll, down from 561 million bu. in September.
Analysts also expect the USDA will forecast larger global 2013-14 crop production than in the September report.
Downward pressure on oilseeds is coming from expectations that South America will have a record 2013-14 soybean crop thanks to increased seeded area and expectations for normal weather, with no La Nina or El Nino.
Fewer corn acres are expected in South America because current prices barely cover the cost of production.
In global wheat production, a production decline in Argentina will likely be offset by increased estimates for Canada and Kazakhstan.
The USDA report will establish the market mindset for the rest of the calendar year, after which South American weather, U.S. ex-port pace and speculation about Northern Hemisphere seeding plans will start to dominate.
