Last year’s involuntary summerfallow in southern Manitoba saved this year’s oat crop from drought.
But it’s unclear whether the eastern Saskatchewan crop, which didn’t have the same soil moisture reserves, is turning out as well.
“It’s a real wait and see,” said Terry Tyson, procurement manager for Popowich Milling in Yorkton, Sask.
“It’s just a question of whether that late crop ran out of water. It’s the later, later fields (that are the question.) Did they run out of moisture? Is the heat going to have an impact on yield or quality or both?”
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Most of the Red River Valley crop in eastern Manitoba is now harvested and appears to be mostly milling quality. A month ago, many producers were worried that a long blast of heat and dry weather might have harmed the plants, but samples now show a good crop.
“It’s pretty good,” said Real Tetrault of Emerson Milling.
“The thin count is a little bit high because of the dryness. They didn’t fill. A two-inch (five centimetre) rain would have made a world of difference.
“But once you discount the thin kernels, it’s pretty good.”
Most of the Red River Valley crop appears to be No. 1 and 2, Tetrault said.
The effect of this summer’s drought appears to have been reduced because of the moisture left over from last year’s flooding that saw a lot of acreage left unseeded.
“It’s much better than we were anticipating,” said Tetrault.
The eastern Saskatchewan crop is just beginning to come in from the fields.
Tyson doesn’t know what to expect, but he thinks the first crops will probably have good quality and yield because early seeded crops got quick post-seeding rain. Crops seeded after that rain were late, leaving them vulnerable to the worst of the heat and dryness of midsummer.
“Everyone, including the farmers in the fields, are not sure what to expect,” said Tyson, who had not seen new-crop samples as of Aug. 11.
“It’s the stuff that went in in June that guys worry about.”
Tyson is not willing to write down this crop’s prospects too fast, though, because last year’s eastern Saskatchewan crop showed that oats can be resilient.
“I remember being worried about test weights last year and no problems materialized because the roots just kept seeming to find moisture, there was just so much of it there,” said Tyson.
Before harvest, prices had been supported by worries about the heat, but the good Manitoba harvest has calmed fears and put downward pressure on prices. However, they have not been seriously undermined.
Early in the season there was a potential for this year’s crop to be large, so the present reports of good quality in eastern Manitoba do not radically change expectations.
