Lentil acreage estimates are all over the map in advance of Statistics Canada’s April 26 seeding intentions report.
Saskatchewan Agriculture is calling for a much smaller increase than many crop analysts are expecting. The vast majority of lentil acreage is in Saskatchewan.
In its first crop report of the 2010-11 season, the department estimated a 13 percent increase in plantings in the south, a 12 percent bump in the central region and a one percent increase in the north.
That pales in comparison to the 38 percent hike in plantings projected by a special crops analyst in January at the Pulse Days portion of Crop Production Week.
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Even bigger forecasts have been making the rounds.
Earlier this week, Larry Weber of Weber Commodities Ltd. forecast 3.53 million acres of lentils for Saskatchewan, up 51 percent from the 2.34 million acres that were seeded last spring.
Chuck Penner, senior consultant with Informa Economics, said the Statistics Canada report is typically more moderate than the extremes.
He believes plantings will come in “a hair over” three million acres.
Key Saskatchewan lentil growing regions that were dry have received the lion’s share of spring moisture.
Another bullish factor for acreage is that lentils compete with durum, and the market signals for that crop are poor. The latest blow came in the Canadian Wheat Board’s April 16 announcement that it would accept only 20 percent of Series B durum contracts.
One significant bearish factor for lentil markets is a recent U.S. Department of Agriculture report updating what’s happening with the Turkish lentil crop.
The report says Turkey is heading for an above-average harvest after two years of drought-reduced crops. The country is an important importer of Canadian red lentils and in good production years competes with Canada in export markets in the Middle East and North Africa.
Early season rainfall in Turkey was vastly improved over last year. The country received an average of 397 millimetres of moisture from October 2009 to January 2010, up from 272 mm the previous year. The long-term average is 309 mm.
If conditions remain normal, USDA forecasts a “dramatic increase” in Turkish lentil production to 550,000 tonnes, up from 280,000 tonnes in 2009 and 100,000 tonnes the year before that.
Turkey was by far the largest buyer of Canadian lentils in 2008-09, taking 198,912 tonnes of the crop.
It was also Canada’s top export destination in the first six months of 2009-10, buying 166,297 tonnes of lentils, which is almost five times the volume consumed by Egypt, the next largest customer.
Another bearish factor is that the USDA expects American growers to boost area by 23 percent to 510,000 acres, up from 415,000 acres in 2009.
American farmers typically grow green lentils, but more reds could be planted this year, Penner said.
He has only a gut feel about what the colour split might be in Canada.
“There is a lot of discussion about, ‘well, maybe we should do greens this year because the red market is the one that might get swamped.’ That’s kind of the buzz I’m hearing.”
