The late spring could take a toll on yields, but it is unlikely to dramatically disrupt crop plans, says a grain industry analyst.
“I don’t see it making a big difference crop mix wise,” said John Duvenaud, an analyst with Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory.
“Really, how much can you do? Most farmers have a rotation that they’re going to follow anyways. And what crop is good for late seeding? Nothing really.”
Grant McLean, cropping management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, thinks there could be some switching out of longer season crops like corn and soybeans.
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“With the changes in the way markets are going, individuals have been quite excited about some of these newer crops,” he said.
“They may be starting to rethink some of those acres.”
Corn and soybeans need soil temperatures of at least 10 C to germinate, while most cereals, pulses and canola will germinate at 3-5 C.
As a result, McLean could see farmers moving away from some of the high heat unit crops into wheat, which is often the go-to crop when seeding is delayed because of its resiliency.
However, growers may want to reconsider the recent trend toward growing wheat for bushels rather than quality because some of the general purpose varieties require a longer growing season, said McLean.
Dale Leftwich, a grower from Esterhazy, Sask., believes last minute seeding changes could be happening across the Prairies.
He is at least two weeks behind where he normally is at this time of the year. He still had 60 centimetres of snow in his backyard as of late last week.
“If this continues for much longer, people are going to start thinking about seeding something other than what they originally intended,” he said.
Leftwich is contemplating switching some of his acres into shorter season crops like barley and oats.
Duvenaud has done that in the past and it didn’t make much of a difference.
“As far as I know, there’s no crop that’s a panacea here that you can seed it late and you know you’re going to get a good crop worth money,” he said.
Duvenaud agreed with McLean that corn may lose ground to a crop like wheat, but he doesn’t anticipate any reduction in soybean acres.
There are differing opinions on how big of a seeding delay farmers are facing.
Some grain industry analysts say growers are already two to three weeks behind schedule, but McLean thinks it’s more like a week behind normal. He remains optimistic about crop prospects.
“We still do the majority of our seeding in the month of May,” he said.
Duvenaud believes the cool weather is already taking its toll on yield prospects.
“The runoff hasn’t even started yet. It’s going to be a late seeding, no two ways about it,” he said.
“If you are a conscientious yield projector, you would already be ratcheting them down.”
But when asked how much he was reducing yields in his supply and demand estimates, Duvenaud offered a more moderate take on the situation.
“I’m not adjusting any S & Ds down. Not yet. It’s still April. Who knows what’s going to happen.”
McLean has spoken to one large farm operator who said he will be cutting back on fertilizer this spring if he is late getting into the fields because he doesn’t want to waste money on what could be a low-yielding crop.
While there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding spring seeding, one thing is for sure: farmers are becoming mighty antsy.
“People would like to be doing something. Farmers tend to be physical people. They want to be doing stuff and the weather isn’t allowing that to happen,” said McLean.
