The late canola crop might deliver a bigger yield hit than some are anticipating.
Winter wheat is normally planted on canola stubble between mid-August and mid-September. That is going to pose a major challenge this fall.
The Canola Council of Canada says it needs frost to stay away at least until mid- to late-September to harvest a decent crop. If a good portion of the canola comes off after Sept. 15, farmers won’t be able to seed that land to winter wheat.
Winter Cereals Canada chair Garth Butcher said western Canadian growers will have a tough time matching last year’s plantings of 930,000 acres, which were down 32 percent from 2007.
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“I think (acres are) going to be somewhat down,” he said.
Butcher is a seed seller. While he’s had more orders than he had at this time last year, he is also fielding more questions about how to grow the crop, considering canola stubble may not be available in many areas.
“There’s guys thinking about planting on pea stubble. There’s guys thinking about planting on barley stubble or stuff that is silaged,” he said.
The problem is that canola is a perfect rotational match with winter wheat and it leaves behind nice, tall stubble that can trap snowfall for early spring moisture. Butcher said it is riskier growing winter wheat on pea stubble, although he has successfully done it twice.
Ideally, winter wheat would be in the ground by Sept. 1 in his area near Birtle, Man. However, due to the late crop, nothing was planted as of Aug. 28 and he doubted anything would be seeded by Sept. 1.
Growers shouldn’t push seeding much past Sept. 15 because it usually comes with a severe yield penalty. That makes a narrow window to get the crop in the ground.
Butcher said the crop he planted last fall looks average at best. Yields in his area have been 50 to 70 bushels per acre, which is about 10 bu. below normal.
To make matters worse, two of the key markets for the crop have shrunk. The hog industry, which uses the crop for feed, just received a government bailout designed to help some producers secure loans and others to exit the business.
As well, the western Canadian ethanol industry, which likes to use winter wheat, has cut back purchases due to fusarium problems in Manitoba’s crop.
Husky Energy’s ethanol plant in Minnedosa, Man., was paying as much as $7 a bu. for winter wheat when wheat prices were peaking. Butcher received an e-mail from the plant last week offering $3.95 per bu. for his grain, which he figures is partially a reflection of the plant anticipating frost damage to this year’s crop. That would mean a lot of low quality wheat on the market.
“The market for wheat at very best is not exciting,” he said.
However, some winter wheat will be planted this fall because it is a good rotational crop that is not challenging to grow.
“The one positive is that we’ve got good moisture right now,” Butcher said.
“When you plant it, it’s going to germinate right away.”
