American farmers are getting ready to harvest a bumper spring wheat crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting 15.6 million tonnes of production, which would be the largest crop since 1996-97, despite the fifth smallest planted area in 20 years.
It is also forecasting a sizable 2.06 million tonne durum crop, which is almost identical to the previous 10-year average.
That is impressive, considering growers planted 1.65 million acres with durum, which is up from last year but well below the 10-year average of 2.2 million acres.
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Erica Olson, marketing specialist with the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said farmers got in their fields early for the first time in five years, and weather conditions have been close to ideal.
“We’ve had fairly good moisture but not too much,” she said.
It was wet in June and July so producers had to be vigilant about spraying their crops, but they have done a good job and disease pressure is low.
The USDA is forecasting average spring wheat yields of 48 bushels per acre for North Dakota, which would be a record.
“I have talked to some producers and when they hear that number, they think it’s too low. They think it will be over 50,” said Olson.
It would likely mean a revision in the 15.6 million tonne production estimate because North Dakota grows half of the spring wheat produced in the United States.
“I think there is definitely some upside potential to that number,” she said.
However, dry conditions in parts of South Dakota and Montana could partially offset the strong crop yields in North Dakota and Minnesota.
The USDA is forecasting an average durum yield of 36 bu. per acre for North Dakota, which again is responsible for about half of the country’s durum acres.
Olson has heard no feedback from growers about that estimate, so she thinks it must be fairly accurate.
The U.S. spring wheat crop was rated 70 percent good to excellent as of the week ending July 19, which is the same condition it was in a year ago.
North Dakota’s durum crop was rated 86 percent good to excellent.
Early season durum sales have been brisk for 2015-16 and the USDA expects continued strong demand for the crop because of poor production prospects in Canada and parts of the European Union.
The USDA is forecasting 1.09 million tonnes of U.S. durum exports, up from the five-year average of 903,000 tonnes.
Spring wheat sales have been slow, but the pace is expected to pick up because of a poor Canadian crop and a low protein U.S. hard red winter wheat crop, which also experienced significant disease damage.
The USDA is forecasting 8.85 million tonnes of spring wheat exports, 22 percent above the five-year average.
Olson expects harvest to start during the first week of August, which is about two to three weeks ahead of the last few years, so spring wheat and durum should be hitting the market early.
It is too early to speculate on quality, but big yields usually mean low protein levels.
