India’s winter pulse crop could be in trouble even before it is planted.
Soil moisture conditions are far from ideal in key pulse crop states because of a disappointing summer monsoon.
The Indian government estimates the kharif (summer) pulse harvest will be six million tonnes, 14 percent less than last year’s output and 26 percent less than the government’s target.
Harvest for the summer crop and seeding for the winter crop happens during the same stretch, in the October through December period.
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Pulses that Canadian farmers produce are grown during India’s winter, or rabi season.
Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are two of the most important states for rabi pulse production.
They accounted for 46 percent of India’s chickpeas, 71 percent of its lentils and 78 percent of its peas in the three-year period between 2008-09 and 2010-11, according to Indian government statistics.
Monsoon rain between June 1 and Sept. 30 was dismal in those two states, according to India’s Meteorological Department.
Rains were 12 percent deficit in west Madhya Pradesh, 29 below normal in the east, 42 percent deficit in east Uttar Pradesh and 56 below average in the west of that state.
It doesn’t bode well for the coming rabi crop, which is heavily reliant on soil reserves and reservoirs left over from the monsoon rains, said G. Chandrashekhar, associate editor of the Hindu Business Line.
“Prospects currently look precarious as the southwest monsoon started to withdraw earlier in September. This has left limited subsoil moisture,” he said in an email.
“Unless there is sufficient precipitation in November-December, rabi planting may suffer, yields will vary and harvest will be short of the target of 12.5 million tonnes.”
India is coming off two huge chickpea crops of 9.9 million tonnes in 2014 and 8.8 million tonnes in 2013. It pushed prices in India below the minimum support price of $550 per tonne for an extended period.
Chandrashekhar said the low prices could discourage growers from planting chickpeas. Prices perked up recently, but it may be too late.
“All-in-all, India’s shortage is likely to widen in 2014-15 and will have to be met through additional imports,” he said.
The country already has commitments in place to import one million tonnes of pulses, mainly yellow peas and lentils from Canada and other pulses from Myanmar and Africa.
Jon Driedger, an analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, said pulses are already the bright light in agriculture markets, with top quality lentil prices “going through the roof” and lots of support for yellow peas.
The dry conditions in key rabi states could further bolster prices this winter.
“It’s for sure going to be a bit of a concern. Maybe it’s going to help provide some support for pulse prices going forward,” he said.
In the meantime, Canada’s crop is shrinking.
Statistics Canada pegged the lentil crop at 1.76 million tonnes in its September estimate, down nine percent from its July estimate. The pea crop is pegged at 3.5 million tonnes, which is close to where it was in the July estimate.
Driedger said the lentil story is about quality rather than quantity. Little of this year’s crop will grade No. 2 or better.
Greg Kostal, president of Kostal Ag Consulting, agreed that users’ ability to adapt to Canada’s poor quality crop is the key issue in pulse markets this year.
“I’m optimistic because we’ve dealt with this in 2010, and importers and the trade have experience with wrinkles,” he said.
Buyers don’t have a lot of other import options when it comes to red lentils because Turkey and India both had short crops.
Kostal said it’s a good sign that India recently extended its duty exemption on imported peas, beans and lentils until March 31. The exemption was set to expire Sept. 30.
It shows that the government is nervous about domestic supplies.
However, Kostal believes it is too early to be downgrading India’s rabi crop production prospects.
“All you need there is a few timely rains to keep things going. More importantly is what happens December through February.”
