India’s winter crop had better weather in January than it did in December.
A warm dry November and December, following a below average summer monsoon, reduced seeded acreage and had farmers worried about the winter crop.
However, the temperature cooled in January and there were showers, reducing the stress level on crops, although rain was generally less than average for the month.
On the other hand, it is the dry season and so normal rainfall is minimal this time of year anyway.
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Indian agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh forecast Jan. 30 that winter wheat production could surpass last year’s disappointing 88.9 million tonnes, which was down from a record 95.9 million the previous year. Last year, dry weather and rain at harvest hurt production and quality.
Total pulse production last year was 17.2 million tonnes, down from 19.8 million in 2013-14 and 18.3 million in 2012-13.
This year’s summer crop struggled under the monsoon rain shortfall.
A big question for the new winter crop is how hot it will get this month after the relief in January.
India is in the Northern Hemisphere but is a lot closer to the equator than Canada, so its winter temperatures are warm by Canadian standards.
Much of the pulse production occurs in the west-central area of the country in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.
Bhopal, the capital of Madhya Pradesh, has a daily average high temperature of 25 C in January. February highs warm to 28 C on average.
February can sometimes get warmer with temperatures up in the 30s, which can stress growing crops.
However, India’s Meteorological Department forecasts favourable weather in February and March.
Seeding appears to have come to its conclusion for the season. Wheat area is down 4.2 percent from this point last year, but the hope that weather from now until harvest will be favourable is the basis for the hope that this year’s crop will top last year’s disappointing harvest.
Seeded winter pulse area is 34.37 million acres, down 2.7 percent from last year and down 6.2 percent from the five-year average.
Even if pulse yields also turn out to be a little better than last year, it means production should again fall well short of demand and large imports from Canada and other exporters are mostly guaranteed.
The strong pulse prices this year in Canada are mostly driven by the heavy exports to help feed India’s 1.24 billion people.
Canadian lentil exports to India totalled 692,158 tonnes in the first four months of the crop year (August-November), more than double the pace of the previous year when 277,092 tonnes moved in that period.
Pea exports total 692,037 tonnes, up eight percent.
darce.mcmillan@producer.com
