DES MOINES, Iowa – Canadian crops may face a crowded market with big U.S. corn and soybean crops this fall, a U.S. weather expert thinks.
The official forecast is for hot and dry weather west of the U.S. continental divide this summer, and that tends to mean cooler weather in the U.S. Midwest, says Iowa State University professor Elwynn Taylor.
That would likely mean record crop yields in the Midwest, an area that often suffers from scorching heat.
“If there’s one thing that really helps our crops, it’s to make sure the crops are not too hot in July and August,” said Taylor, following a presentation at the World Pork Expo.
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“When it’s hot west of the continental divide, we tend to be cooler than usual east of it.”
Taylor said there is not much chance of a drought in the U.S. corn belt this summer because the weather in the southeast, where droughts tend to begin, has been getting less severe since last year. La Nina appears to have gone away.
Taylor said the forecast of a hot and dry summer in the western U.S. seems much like the situation in 2004 and 1992, hot years in the west and cooler than average years in the Midwest.
Both years produced record corn yields, which Taylor attributes directly to the cooler conditions. In the Midwest, crops tend to suffer from intense heat, rather than suffering from the common prairie condition of not enough heat.
“Every 10 degrees (F) of temperature doubles the amount of water they need,” said Taylor of corn and soybean crops in the Midwest.
“Droughts are caused more by temperature than lack of rain in the Midwest.”
Saturated soils in the Red River Valley, early dryness in eastern Nebraska and rain-delayed planting in the eastern corn belt have affected American farmers.
But Taylor said the hot west weather phenomenon he’s following tends to boost crop yields and that could be this year’s biggest factor.
It’s too early to count on, but if it occurs, it’s a very reliable cause of big crops.
“It’s worth watching,” said Taylor.
