Relatively good weather conditions around the world mean that prairie wheat farmers have entered 2006 with few promises of changes in world supply conditions.
Many of the world’s crops are already planted and growing, so something unexpected could jar the markets into action, but it would have to be a major factor.
Winter wheat crops are now growing in the United States, northern Europe, Ukraine, Russia, China, India and Pakistan. They are all months away from harvest, lying now in dormancy or slow growth.
In summery Australia and Argentina, the wheat harvest has ended or is winding up.
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Canadian Wheat Board world weather watcher Bruce Burnett said Australia pulled off a good harvest while Argentina’s was disappointing.
Australian farmers had been worried by dry conditions during the growing season, but “they got the moisture in the nick of time.”
The crop will be one of Australia’s largest ever, estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture at 24 million tonnes.
Australia grows winter wheat because its scorching summer temperatures make spring wheat a losing bet in most years. The harvest is usually complete by late December.
Argentina suffers
Argentina’s harvest usually occurs a few weeks later and is wrapped up by the end of January. Already 80 percent of the wheat has been harvested.
Neither its quality nor quantity is good. Its quantity was reduced by dry conditions during the growing season that were only alleviated at harvest time, with rains that damaged crop quality.
But for many South American farmers the rains were welcome, reducing fears that their developing corn and soybean crops would be damaged. Those crops are in mid-season and needed the rain.
Most world winter wheat crops went into the soil in good condition. The biggest exception was in Russia and Ukraine, where persistent dryness damaged crop establishment and reduced seeded area.
The drought there broke in late November, but some damage had already been done to the seeded crop, and unseeded acres will be sown to spring crops.
Burnett said spring barley is the most likely replacement crop for winter wheat because barley seed is easier to get in most of the affected areas.
The U.S. winter wheat crop enjoyed excellent conditions at seeding, but continuing dryness has been gnawing away at it since. The recent grass fires in Texas and Oklahoma show how dry it is now, Burnett said.
“But that doesn’t necessarily mean much if they get the proper precipitation in winter and early spring,” he said.
Weather system
A La Nina system appears to be developing, which tends to promote warm and dry weather in the U.S. southwest, which would bode ill for crops there.
“It’s worth watching,” said Burnett.
The soft red wheat area in the southern corn belt is in good condition and Burnett expected the USDA will reveal a bigger acreage in its January report. With high fertilizer prices, wheat appears more economically attractive to many farmers than corn.
The European winter wheat crop was seeded into relatively dry soils, “which helped the planting.” Since then, conditions have been cool and damp, which is not bad for the crop.
India and Pakistan wheat crops, which are usually the first to hit the world market in March and April, should benefit from a good monsoon season that recharged irrigation reservoirs.
“They should have adequate moisture for this year’s production,” said Burnett.
The Chinese winter wheat crop also looks healthy and well set for growth.
“The planting is done and they have some pretty reasonable growing conditions,” said Burnett.
