Oat deliveries have dried up as prices fail to keep up with farmers’ expectations.
“We know that the oat market has to go higher but it’s going lower,” said Doug Chambers of Quality Grain.
“You can’t get anybody to move oats before January now.”
But leading oat industry and market analyst Randy Strychar planned to tell growers at this week’s Prairie Oat Growers Association annual meeting in Yorkton, Sask., that they’ll likely have a chance to sell at yearly highs.
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“You’re probably going to get your best opportunity for your highest prices between now and mid to late February,” said Strychar of Oatinsight. com.
“You’re going to have to shoot a duck sometime in that period.”
Like most other crops in North America, oat futures have slipped since the beginning of November.
But because farmers are bullish about prospects for higher prices, they have stopped selling and buyers are pushing basis levels over futures to attract supplies.
Strychar said prairie cash oat prices must keep up to at least current levels – $3.23 to $3.59 per bushel in Manitoba, $3 to $3.39 in Saskatchewan, $2.78 to $3.17 in Alberta – to convince farmers to make deliveries.
He expects to see Saskatchewan and Manitoba cash prices rise to $3.50 to $3.75 per bu. during the early winter to encourage deliveries.
However, if prices reach that level, it might hurt demand and buyers could begin putting off purchases until the new crop is growing.
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