Below freezing temperatures across a wide swath of the southern U.S. Plains early this week endangered the hard red winter wheat crop.
According to the Kansas State University extension department, winter wheat that has started to joint can be hurt when temperatures fall below -4 C for at least two hours, and it was expected to be that cold.
The damage can be moderate to severe, but the true extent will take a few weeks to reveal itself. As this column was written April 14, Kansas City wheat futures rose but were not up the daily limit. They closed the day up more than 2.5 percent.
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The amount in the jointing stage as of April 14 was 31 percent, close to last year’s 33 percent but behind the long-term average of 47 percent.
Frost hit the region last year at the same time.
Last year Kansas wheat on average yielded 38 bushels an acre due to the frost and dry weather, down from the previous five-year average of 40.8 bushels.
The overall U.S. winter wheat crop condition deteriorated a little again last week. As of April 13, before the freeze hit, the national rating for the winter crop, which includes hard and soft types, saw the poor-to-very poor rating increase to 32 percent from 29 percent the previous week. Fair fell to 34 percent from 36 and the good-to-excellent portion fell to 34 percent from 35.
Texas and Oklahoma remained in the worst shape with 63 percent of the Texas crop in poor to very poor condition, up from 61 percent the previous week. Oklahoma’s poor to very poor rating was 54 percent, up from 48 percent. Kansas poor to very poor rating was 30 percent, up from 27 percent.
The worry about the frost in the U.S. Plains and new worries about escalating tensions in Ukraine lifted wheat prices early this week, but overall wheat had been pulling back from its late winter-early spring rally.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report last week increased the forecast for year-end global wheat stocks to 186.68 million tonnes, up 2.9 million tonnes from the previous month, mostly because China is consuming less feed wheat. Global year-end stocks would be up about 10 million tonnes from the end of 2012-13, which will weigh on wheat values.
Weather events elsewhere affecting the coming 2014-15 global wheat crop were mixed.
Concern is rising about a large dry area extending from Germany into France, but Ukraine received rain in recent days, helping to alleviate concerns about dry soil there.
The situation in Australia, where farmers will soon begin seeding wheat, improved a little over the past week.
South Australia received good rain this month, as have parts of New South Wales and Victoria, all in the southeastern part of Australia. However, other parts of the southeast remain dry and agricultural parts of Western Australia are very dry.
Prospects for an El Nino are increasing.
El Ninos tend to deliver dry weather to eastern Australia and in some cases increase the amount of rain in the U.S. Midwest.
