How often have you heard or read that food production must increase by 60 percent by 2050 to keep up with rising population and income growth?
It seems a daunting task, and this prediction from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization is constantly trotted out as the reason why agriculture and farmers must do something or another.
However, the goal becomes less daunting once you get past the headline and probe a little deeper into the FAO’s projection.
The full prediction was that food production by 2050 would have to increase 60 percent over the 2005-07 period. As well, the FAO clearly states that to get there required an average annual increase of only 1.1 percent, which is less than the average annual increase from 1961 to 2009.
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We’ve handily kept up with food demand increases in the last few years. Global corn production has exceeded demand for the past five years, and soybean and wheat production surpassed demand for the past four years.
The only real stumble in meeting growing demand for major crops was in the early-to-mid 2000s, when an unusual string of bad weather hit several key regions, and farmers were economizing on crop inputs because of a string of low income years.
Today, we are again looking at a low income year in North America as grain stocks mount.
I’ve always believed that farmers can keep up to food demand if they are adequately and fairly compensated.
One way they responded to the food shortages of the mid-2000s and subsequent high crop prices was to increase planted acreage.
Using U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers, I calculate that global soybean acreage rose by an impressive 28 percent from the mid-2000s, while corn area increased by 24 percent and wheat, always the poor cousin, rose four percent.
South American countries brought new land into production for soybeans and corn, and the former Soviet countries, particularly Ukraine, shifted acreage to produce more corn.
The FAO says its goal for 2050 can be met; the issue is doing it sustainably.
The goal is to avoid such practices as cultivating ecologically sensitive land, deforestation and fertilizer pollution of surface water.
The pressure on Brazil’s Amazon region and the vast, choking smoke from Indonesia’s land clearing this year are warning us of the potential for environmental calamity.
However, rapid advances in biotechnology should soon produce higher yielding crops that are more efficient users of water and nutrients, which could lessen agriculture’s environmental footprint.
However, one of the greatest dangers I see is the over-reliance in some regions on irrigation from aquifers.
Groundwater levels are plunging in India, China and parts of the United States. A World Bank study estimates that 15 percent of India’s food supply is produced by mining groundwater.
This can’t continue without dire consequences.
The world’s farmers will likely be able to keep up with food demand, but regions with depleted groundwater could face declining local food production and increasing costs to import from water-rich countries.
Great resources will have to be spent on reservoir development and watershed management.
darce.mcmillan@producer.com
