Prairie farmers are greeting soaring world wheat prices with the smallest wheat acreage since 1970.
And, rather than increase canola acreage by 15 percent this year as many farmers and analysts estimated this winter, the oilseed’s area has increased only five percent.
That doesn’t mean farmers don’t see profit in wheat and canola, said the Canadian Wheat Board’s weather and crop conditions expert Bruce Burnett.
It’s just that other crops look good too. Poor seeding conditions also figured in the shifts.
“The obvious beneficiary here of the change in acreage this year are oats and barley,” said Burnett in a crop conditions briefing June 14.
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The wheat board predicts a wheat crop of 21.2 million tonnes this year, down from last year’s 24.4 million tonnes. That crop is growing on an acreage base of 22.17 million acres, more than 11 percent down from 2006 and more than half a million acres off of Statistics Canada’s March seeding intentions survey report.
But barley acreage soared by more than 27 percent from last year, and oat acreage leapt more than 24 percent.
Burnett said wet conditions in large areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta delayed seeding so long that farmers had to shift into shorter season feed grain.
They also abandoned 650,000 to 750,000 acres due to wetness, Burnett said, the third year that moisture has taken out substantial cropland.
But overall, the crops that were seeded are in excellent condition.
“I think with the good moisture conditions that we have right now, if we get one or two more timely rains during the next month or so, you could certainly see yields up in those areas,” he said.
For instance, the board predicts average wheat yields will be 35.9 bushels per acre across the Prairies, but that could rise to 38.2 if conditions are near perfect. They could fall to 31.9 if conditions sour.
The board’s prediction for the most likely barley yield is 57.5 bu. per acre, with a range of 53.1 to 60.1.
It estimates canola at 30.7 bu. per acre, with a range of 28.2 to 32 and oats at 65.5 bu. per acre with a range of 62.3 to 67.6.
The board’s canola area estimate is dramatically different from the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report, when farmers suggested they would grow 14.78 million acres.
The CWB’s post-seeding observation is for 13.35 million canola acres. That’s large by historical standards, but not the sort of huge jump some market forecasters warned against during the winter, saying too much canola could flood the market and drop prices. Since then traders have scaled back expectations and the CWB forecast last week had little effect on Winnipeg canola futures.
