(Correction – A story on page 6 of the July 22 issue on pulse crop production forecasts attributed the wrong source to mustard crop estimates. Bob Waldbauer said that mustard plantings would be 440,000 acres, production 154,000 tonnes with a carryout of 86,000 tonnes, resulting in a 54 percent stocks to use ratio.)
One of Canada’s largest pea merchandisers expects a much bigger crop than Agriculture Canada is forecasting in its latest market outlook.
“It looks like we would have a supply situation very similar to the past years,” said Carsten Bredin, assistant vice-president of eastern grains and pulses for Richardson International.
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Speaking to delegates gathered at the Canadian Special Crops Association’s 2010 convention, Bredin said he expects 835,000 tonnes of carryout at the end of the 2010-11 crop year, which is 50 percent higher than what Agriculture Canada forecast in its July 8 supply and disposition report.
Part of the reason is that the majority of peas are now grown in southwestern Saskatchewan, where crop conditions are good.
Between 2001 and 2009, there was an exodus of 250,000 acres of peas from the northern and east-central portions of the province into the southwest corner, which is up 456,000 acres over that same time frame.
As a result, Bredin doesn’t think planting losses due to excess moisture will be as severe as they are in other crops. He expects growers will harvest 3.3 million of the 3.8 million acres they intended to put in the ground this spring.
Growing conditions in the southwest have been similar to 2000 when farmers harvested a good pea crop. Bredin anticipates a 34 bushel per acre yield in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and a 37 bu. crop in Alberta, for a prairie-wide average of 34.9 bu.
That would result in a 3.15 million tonne crop, up 14 percent from what Agriculture Canada is forecasting and a record 4.04 million tonnes of supply.
Bredin estimates 2.56 million tonnes of yellow pea production and 586,000 tonnes of greens. He stressed that what happens in Canada has a major influence on pea prices because Canada accounts for 36 percent of global pea production and 59 percent of the global trade of the commodity.
“Canada is definitely a market maker,” he said.
Lentils
If everything had gone according to plan, producers would have seeded 3.25 million acres of the crop, comprised mainly of 1.85 million acres of reds and one million acres of large greens.
Gildardo Silva, Hispanic American sales manager for Walker Seeds, said that would have resulted in an estimated 1.84 million tonnes of production and a burdensome 367,810 tonnes of carryout. But then the rains came, washing away an estimated 20 percent of intended acreage.
Silva is now forecasting 1.47 million tonnes of production and 60,000 tonnes of carryout, which is far less than the 175,000 tonnes forecast by Agriculture Canada.
Chickpeas
Silva is projecting 205,000 acres of chickpeas, comprising 140,000 acres of kabulis, 50,000 acres of B-90s and 15,000 acres of desis. He is forecasting 111,586 tonnes of production and 31,586 tonnes of carryout.
He said the 2009 chickpea carryout is low and the product remaining in the system is poor quality.
“I think that chickpeas might get some momentum,” said Silva.
Beans
Gord Pryde, sales manager for Ontario’s Hensall District Co-operative Inc., estimates 301,800 acres of beans, up seven percent over last year, led by a 37 percent hike in navy plantings.
The bean crop is in good shape in Ontario and Quebec, but having trouble in Alberta and southern Manitoba.
Pryde thinks slightly higher than average prices will be needed to keep beans in the ground next year.
Mustard
Bob Waldbauer wasn’t as optimistic about mustard, pegging plantings at 440,000 acres, production at 154,000 tonnes and carryout at 86,000 tonnes, resulting in a 54 percent stocks-to-use ratio, which he said is a “big number.”
The good news is the crop is developing nicely, said Waldbauer, manager of special crops for Lakeside Global Grains Inc.
Canaryseed
Waldbauer is forecasting 340,000 acres of canaryseed, down from the 500,000 acres growers had planned.
He expects 145,000 tonnes of production and 18,000 tonnes of carryover if the Mexican trade impasse is resolved in a timely manner.
Once trade resumes, prices could start back at 18 cents per pound and climb to 20 cents and beyond.
“Twenty-five cents might be in the cards. It’s certainly possible,” said Waldbauer.
