Growing conditions are mostly good around the world where crops are seeded in October and November for harvest next year.
In some places, such as the American winter wheat belt, conditions were good from the start.
In other places, such as Argentina where it was dry, recent rain has improved prospects.
For now, good crop conditions are weighing on the market. Outside of the hot oilseeds market, which is driven by strong U.S. exports, the market thinks supply is more than adequate.
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Almost all of the crop in the United States is in the ground now and most is judged to be in good to excellent condition.
The International Grains Council expects U.S. winter wheat acreage will be down four percent because of lower prices.
The U.S. Drought Monitor website at www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html shows the southern plains are free from dry areas for the first time in several years and the three month outlook is for normal precipitation.
Ukraine was dry during early seeding, and some worried analysts went so far as to forecast a 35 to 40 percent drop in wheat production.
However, rain and warm weather in late October and November improved conditions greatly.
UkrAgroConsult now says 85 percent of the crop is in satisfactory to good condition and only 15 percent is in poor condition.
The moisture has also helped the Russian crop, and analyst firm SovEcon thinks the country will harvest 43 to 48 million tonnes of wheat in 2010, similar to what was produced in 2009.
Europe has enjoyed a mostly favourable fall seeding season. India’s winter wheat crop is off to a good start and there are no major worries in China.
In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina has not yet made a forecast of its soybean crop size, but the U.S. Department of Agriculture believes the country will grow 53 million tonnes, up from 31 million tonnes last year.
That forecast was in doubt a month ago as drought persisted, prompting analytic firm Oil World to lower its forecast to 48 million tonnes from 52 million in October.
However, rain in recent weeks greatly improved the situation, allowing farmers to resume stalled seeding efforts. Still, on Dec. 7 Argentina shaved its forecast for seeded area to 44.47 million acres from 45.7 million.
Next door in Brazil, rain this seeding season has been average to above average everywhere and excessive in some spots.
The country is expected to produce a 63 million tonne soybean crop, up from 57 million last year.
