The rain in Spain may fall mainly on the plain, but on the north China plain it’s mainly not there at all.
And with the crop in that country’s main wheat growing region moving into the heading stage, Chinese wheat production could fall significantly from recent years’ results.
Dry weather last fall caused Chinese farmers to seed fewer acres than expected to winter wheat. Officials were already expecting the crop would be smaller than last year and if weather problems now reduce yields, the shortfall could increase.
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“If we see any further drop (in yield potential) because of stress to the crop, this will become a concern to them,” said Canadian Wheat Board world weather analyst Bruce Burnett.
On May 14 China’s Xinhua news agency reported that 5.7 million acres of the 12.4 million acre winter wheat crop in Henan province had been damaged by drought.
Henan produces about 24 percent of China’s wheat.
The north China plain usually receives rainfall beginning in early April, but this year little has come so far. That’s not as much of a crisis as it would be six weeks into the growing season in Canada, because most Chinese wheat fields are irrigated. But the delayed moisture has begun removing the crop’s margin of safety.
“What this has done is put some pressure on their irrigation systems a bit earlier in the year than they normally would,” said Burnett.
The minority of acreage that is non-irrigated is in worse shape.
“We’ve probably seen a drop in yield potential,” he said.
The southern edge of the Chinese plain is beginning to go into the heading stage, so rain will be necessary across the region soon.
While yield reductions will affect the world market, they may do so indirectly, Burnett said. China still holds large stocks of wheat.
“They may be able to supplement with the existing stocks and the impact may be quite minor,” he said.
However, the world market is twitchy, with world stocks at the end of the forthcoming crop year projected to be the lowest since 1981-82, and the memory of the Australian drought still fresh.
“There’s going to be a lot of focus on anything like this in the importing world,” said Burnett.
“We’re in almost uncharted territory for tightness of stocks.”
On May 11 in its world crop production outlook, the USDA forecasted Chinese wheat production at 100 million tonnes, down from 103.5 million last year.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre estimated winter wheat harvest could fall four percent this year to 96.43 million tonnes partly because of drought.
