China’s 2010-11 crop is off to a shaky start.
“They have a lot of issues going on nation-wide. It’s not a good spring for them, that’s for sure,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, Inc.
Farmers have experienced abnormally cold weather in the northeast, flooding in the southeast and drought in the southwest.
However, crop damage is expected to be minimal unless conditions persist or worsen.
“The delay in the spring wheat planting is probably the single greatest issue,” said Lerner.
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Growers in the northeast, including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, three of the biggest spring wheat growing provinces, are already two weeks behind in sowing their crops.
A cold air mass delivered cold rain, snow, windy conditions and freezing temperatures to the region last week.
“They will be three full weeks behind just putting the seed in the ground by the time we get to the end of (April),” he said.
China National Grain and Oils Information Center said Heilongjiang, which is also the country’s biggest soybean producer, may reduce planting by 7.9 percent, or about 923,000 acres, to 10.6 million acres.
Spring wheat accounts for 10 to 15 percent of China’s total wheat crop. Winter wheat is also under stress due to lower than normal temperatures in the North China Plain and east-central regions of the country, which has slowed growth of the crop in parts of Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong.
“The bad weather could lead to a lower output in these areas but the country’s overall production may not fall because some other areas are expected to reap bumper harvests,” said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consulting Co. Ltd.
The firm estimated China’s winter wheat output could fall by less than one percent from 106 million tonnes last year.
Lerner agreed that damage is likely minimal unless a strong surface high pressure centre forms in the cold air over the North China Plain, which could cause permanent crop damage.
China’s ministry of agriculture issued a forecast calling for a 1.89 million tonne reduction in winter wheat output from last year. The agency has also rated 8.65 million acres of the wheat crop as inferior due to the cold weather.
Experts say the country’s rapeseed production could fall one to 1.5 million tonnes from last year’s 13.7 million tonne crop. Lerner isn’t so sure it will be that bad.
“The heart of their rapeseed region is not included in the drought area, so the amount of rapeseed that is going to be reduced is going to be quite small,” he said.
