North American Grains/Oilseed Review – Canola pressured by USDA report

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, November 9 – The ICE Futures Canada canola market suffered losses on Thursday, weighed down by a USDA report that was deemed bearish for oilseeds.

In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA left its estimate for the US soybean yield untouched, which surprised many analysts who had expected it to fall. As a result, a technical selloff occurred which eventually impacted canola.

Meantime the Canadian dollar was about a third of a cent stronger relative to its US counterpart, which weighed on the market.

Rain has fallen in northern Brazil, helping improve growing
conditions for the country’s soybean crop.

However, global demand for oilseeds remains strong and canola seemed to find a bit of technical support around the C$515 mark.

Around 18,500 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which
compares with Wednesday when around 18,242 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,332 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

The soybean market ended 12 to 13 cents weaker on Thursday, pressured by the results of the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report.

The USDA pegged U.S. soybean yields at 49.5 bushels an acre, which was unchanged from the last report. Traders had expected them to be revised lower.

Soybean ending stocks were estimated to be 425 million bushels, which was down slightly. Last month they were 430 million bushels.

The USDA also raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean production, which was bearish.

Corn was six cents lower with the December contract at 3.42 per bushel.

USDA estimated the U.S. corn yield at 175.4 bushels per acre, which was up significantly from last month’s 171.8. That was a bit of a surprise to traders.

The USDA also raised its corn production number to 14.58 billion bushels.

Meantime, farmers in Ohio are waiting for the rain to end there so they can finish the corn harvest.

Wheat was mixed with the front two months enjoying gains of one to two cents per bushel. The December contract in Chicago checked in at 4.29 per bushel.

The market chopped around for most of the day in technical trade.

Weekly U.S. wheat sales were up; however that news was offset by cheap supplies coming out of the Black Sea region.

The dominant December contract on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange rose four cents to US$6.48 a bushel.

Futures Prices as of November 9, 2017

Canola
2017-11-09 13:19
Price Change
Jan 515.50 -5.30
Mar 522.40 -5.50
May 526.50 -6.00
Jul 528.80 -6.80
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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