North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Bids down, late selling likely

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 19 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower Thursday, as a trader
believes the movement late in the session was due to farmers selling off of their combines.

However, there has remained little to influence bids very far either way. Moreso, since buyers have been able to stand pat, given farmers are holding on to a great deal of canola with more to come when the harvest picks up.

Following showers forecast over the southern portion of the Prairies over the next couple of days, a stretch of good weather is expected.

The Canadian dollar was up at mid-afternoon Thursday at 75.43 U.S. cents after closing yesterday at 75.35.

There were 26,716 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 36,112 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 20,696 contracts traded. Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 450.90 dn 1.40
Jan 459.60 dn 1.20
Mar 468.30 dn 0.70
May 476.20 dn 0.40

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Thursday, on hopes for progress on United States/China trade talks.

Deputy trade negotiators from both countries are meeting today and tomorrow in Washington. The main focus of talks will be agriculture, with hopes of getting China to buy more U.S. soybeans. Talks this week could lead to an interim deal next month.

In the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report, soybeans did extremely well for the week ended Sept. 12. Sales topped nearly 1.73 million tonnes, which far exceeded trade expectations. Soymeal export sales came in at 435,800 tonnes, which was on the high end of market predictions. Soyoil was at 20,600 tonnes and well within expectations.

South Korea reported a second case of African swine fever. Following the first case earlier this week, the shipping of pigs within the country was prohibited and 200 were culled.

CORN futures were higher on Thursday in part on the strength of better than expected export sales.

The sales nearly triple over last week with 1.46 million tonnes sold. That was above market expectations. However, previously announced corn sales to Mexico made up a good part of the transactions and that limited the surprise factor.

U.S. President Donald Trump was scheduled to meet today with senators from the biofuel refining states to discuss the situation over waivers he recently granted and the shut downs or production cutbacks at numerous biofuel plants. Meanwhile, an ethanol plant in Sioux City, Iowa was shut down today.

A Reuters survey pegged Brazil corn production this year to be 102.30 million tonnes, up from last year’s 99.98 million.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Thursday, with losses in Chicago and Kansas City and gains for Minneapolis.

It was a disappointing week for export sales of U.S. wheat, at 287,000 tonnes, which was well under the low end trade expectations.

Despite a hot and dry summer, Strategie Grains increased its estimate of European Union wheat production this year by 1.60 million tonnes to now 144.50 million. The EU is the world’s top producer of wheat.

There was widespread frost in Australia. No word yet of the country’s wheat production being further revised downward. Recently the crop estimate was cut from 21.0 million to 19.0 million tonnes due to ongoing drought conditions.

Dry weather in Ukraine has slowed its winter wheat planting.

Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia without a bid from the U.S.

Futures Prices as of September 19, 2019

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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