ESTEVAN, Sask. – Canadian cattle producers shouldn’t expect to see the Americans’ so-called Rule 2 in 2006.
Gregg Doud, chief economist for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association in Washington, D.C., said there are too many factors at play for the United States to bring in Rule 2 regulations that would allow live Canadian cattle older than 30 months or products from those cattle into the U.S.
He said if there hadn’t been two positive cases of BSE in Canadian animals born after the feed ban, the U.S. Department of Agriculture likely would have moved by now.
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However, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency has not provided epidemiological reports to the USDA on those two cases. The rule will depend somewhat on the results, he said.
There is also a political component.
The September to November period is when American cull cows go to market, so the border is unlikely to open to Canadian cows then. As well, a mid-term election is due for November.
“I don’t see a situation where things can be done quickly enough,” Doud told the Saskatchewan Stock Growers Association annual convention in Estevan, saying the earliest he can see older cattle and beef moving is January 2007.
“There’s no grand political conspiracy here,” he said.
Arno Doerksen, chair of the Canada Beef Export Federation, agreed.
He said the rule was expected to be out by July until Canada’s two positive cases in younger animals appeared.
“I think secretary (Mike) Johanns is still committed to do it,” added Canadian Cattlemen’s Association vice-president Brad Wildeman.
Canadian cattle producers must continue to be patient, he said.
Each delay in the opening of the border costs cattle producers’ significant dollars. During the Alberta Beef Producers semi-annual meeting in Edmonton, CCA executive vice-president Dennis Laycraft estimated the closed U.S. border costs Canadian producers $1.2 million a day.
The combination of lost markets to purebred breeding cattle and dairy cattle, lower prices for older cattle and bulls, plus costs of conducting dental and pregnancy checks on animals going south add up.
“There’s a significant amount of money being lost,” said Laycraft.
John Masswohl, CCA’s director of government and international relations, said despite delays to the USDA Rule 2, it’s important to wait for CFIA’s epidemiological report on the latest two cases of BSE.
Publishing a rule without the report would be like handing the U.S. rancher organization R-CALF a gift. R-CALF has been working to restrict cattle and beef trade between the U.S. and Canada.
“Delays are extremely frustrating, but I sure don’t want to see another injunction in place,” said Masswohl at the Edmonton meeting.
“The basis of what R-CALF would sue them on is they didn’t follow the proper rule-making process. That’s why the judge gave them the injunction the last time around,” said Masswohl, of Ottawa.
Doerksen said the issue of testing every animal older than 30 months came up during a recent meeting with Japanese restaurateurs. Five of the six indicated it would help.
Doud said the entire discussion about testing is “absurd.”
“Is tested beef safer than untested beef? Why isn’t it?” he asked.
“Because the test won’t pick it up even if it is positive until it’s a couple months from clinical.”
Doud said Japan doesn’t care about 100 percent testing as much as North Americans think.
“They want the ability … to indicate that they’re large and in charge,” he said. “This is really an exercise in political accountability.”
Long-time industry official Charlie Gracey added that’s the way Canadians feel about the Americans.
“This thing had nothing whatsoever to do with science because the science was known around July 2003,” he said.
