The Good: The 2024-25 crop year exports hit record levels with a total of 50.75 million tonnes inspected for export by the CGC. This was good news for Canadian farmers during this past crop year. Total exports of the 15 major crops were 7.56 million tonnes higher than the 2023-24 crop year. The largest year on year (yoy) increase was for canola which registered a gain of 2.66 million tonnes. Durum exports increased by 2.22 million tonnes yoy while wheat exports increased by 1.2 million tonnes. The wheat exports were the second consecutive record at 22.3 million tonnes and that is good news.
The Bad: Canola futures closed the day up by C$11.40 per tonne and settled at C$680.80 per tonne. The bad news is that canola rallied on the strength of U.S. soybeans which were up by 24 cents per bushel in today’s session. The bad news is that the rally was based on a tweet from President Trump that indicated that China should quadruple its imports of soybeans. This has a snowballs chance in hell of happening in the 2025-26 export season. Remember that total new crop commitments by China so far this crop year totals zero tonnes.
The Ugly: The spring wheat market rallied for the third consecutive session although the gains were minor with only a one cent per bushel gain. The winter wheat markets were also up by one cent per bushel in today’s session. The bad news for spring wheat futures is that the September contract hit the 20 day moving average of US$5.83 per bushel and bounced lower during the rest of the session. This was an ugly move for wheat and indicates that there is limited ability for the contract to rally off of the recent contract lows
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