The Good: I’m spending this week at Ag in Motion (AIM) in Langham, SK and one of the key points in my presentation is that weather conditions will be favorable for the filling stage of the grain, pulse and oilseed crops.
The long term weather outlook released by the U.S. NWS is calling for normal temperatures and above normal chances of rainfall.
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The map below shows the precipitation chances for the last week of the month. Above normal precipitation is forecast on both sides of the border. Remember that we received “blast furnace” conditions during the second half of July and August last year. The forecast is very good news for preserving current crop yield potential across Western Canada.
The Bad: One of the questions today from the audience at AIM was why is the canola market moving lower today as other oilseed markets rally? The answer is that there is no good reason that canola is trading lower. The moves today were bad news for canola as they didn’t make a lot of sense. It appears that canola futures are departing from rational thought from time to time. One of those times appeared to be today.
The Ugly: The wheat market continued the recent ugly trend by losing just over one cent per bushel to settle at US$6.00 per bushel. The spring wheat markets have lost close to 30 cents per bushel over the past four trading sessions. Although the contract currently seems to be stabilizing around the US$6.00 per bushel level, harvest lows are likely to test the US$5.90 per bushel level. That would be ugly news for spring wheat as combines begin to enter the fields in about four to six weeks.
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