Wheat soars on Ukraine and Kansas wind; canola shows technical strength

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Published: March 11, 2014

Spring wheat futures jumped more than two percent higher mostly on concerns about high winds in Kansas and talk that Crimea might not seed a spring grain crop.

Canola also jumped more than 1.5 percent higher while corn, oats and new crop soybean had more modest gains.

Wheat broke through a technical barrier of its 200-day moving average.

Crimea, the focus of the dispute between Russia and Ukraine, is not that important to the country’s grain production, with an over all grain crop of about 1.2 million tonnes. The bigger questions are how much the disruptions affect production in the rest of the country and whether international buyers will look elsewhere for a most stable exporter for supplies.

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U.S. grains: Wheat futures dip; corn falls for third straight session

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures fell on Wednesday amid signs of profit-taking and reports of ample global supplies, which are outweighing concerns over smaller Russian crop estimates, market analysts said.

There were strong wind warnings in Kansas today and dust was causing visibility problems.

In the weekly crop condition report Monday, the USDA in Kansas reported winter wheat condition: five percent very poor (11 percent last year), 13 percent poor (21 last year), 45 percent fair (41 in 2013), 35 percent good (26 last year), and two percent excellent (one percent last year)

The conditions were a slight improvement over last week.

Oklahoma’s winter wheat was 31 percent poor to very poor, 47 percent fair, and 22 percent good to excellent. That showed deterioration from the week before.

The previous week’s ratings were 31 percent poor to very poor, 38 percent fair and 31 percent good to excellent.

Corn followed wheat higher and bounced back a bit from the declines posted Monday following the USDA report.

Canola futures at the Winnipeg ICE Futures exchange gained despite lower old crop soybeans and soy oil.

Canola maintains some technical momentum. Also, some of the trade was related to adjustments between positions held in soybeans and those in canola.

There might also be support from hopes that improved rail performance, caused by the federal government’s demands and warmer weather, could prevent a further build up in year end stocks.

Old crop soybeans fell on thoughts that nearby demand might start shifting to South America, but new crop months rose as the market tried to “buy” acres.

Goldman Sachs raised its three-month prices forecast for Chicago soybean futures to $14.00 per bushel from $12.50 due to tight supplies.

It cuts its acreage forecast by two million acres to 81 million, Reuters reported.

But once acres are secured by strong prices today, soybean prices could sharply decline in the second half of the year as South American supplies post harvest should be abundant. That assumes no weather threat to the U.S. crop, the bank said.

It cut its six-month forecast to $10.50 a bushel from $11.50.

Another factor lurking in the background is data from China showing weaker than expected exports and lack of stability in credit markets.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Mar 2014       441.10       +8.40       +1.94%

Canola May 2014       452.00       +8.40       +1.89%

Canola Jul 2014       461.20       +7.90       +1.74%

Canola Nov 2014       478.00       +8.00       +1.70%

Canola Jan 2015       485.40       +8.70       +1.83%

 

Milling Wheat Mar 2014       206.00       +5.00       +2.49%

Milling Wheat May 2014       212.00       +5.00       +2.42%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014       211.00       +5.00       +2.43%

 

Durum Wheat Mar 2014       245.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014       249.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014       250.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Mar 2014       126.50       unch       0.00%

Barley May 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

Barley Jul 2014       128.50       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 2014       1411.5       -7.75       -0.55%

Soybeans May 2014       1413       -5.75       -0.41%

Soybeans Jul 2014       1391.25       -3       -0.22%

Soybeans Aug 2014       1350.75       +5       +0.37%

Soybeans Sep 2014       1247.75       +12.25       +0.99%

Soybeans Nov 2014       1189.5       +13       +1.10%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 2014       452.3       -0.4       -0.09%

Soybean Meal May 2014       444.2       -0.5       -0.11%

Soybean Meal Jul 2014       433       -0.8       -0.18%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 2014       43.51       -0.13       -0.30%

Soybean Oil May 2014       43.75       -0.11       -0.25%

Soybean Oil Jul 2014       43.87       -0.11       -0.25%

 

Corn Mar 2014       478       +6       +1.27%

Corn May 2014       483.25       +5       +1.05%

Corn Jul 2014       487       +4.75       +0.98%

Corn Sep 2014       483.25       +4       +0.83%

Corn Dec 2014       481.25       +3.25       +0.68%

 

Oats Mar 2014       478       +9       +1.92%

Oats May 2014       424.5       +1.25       +0.30%

Oats Jul 2014       373.5       +8.5       +2.33%

Oats Sep 2014       332.5       +8.5       +2.62%

Oats Dec 2014       316.5       +4.25       +1.36%

 

Wheat Mar 2014       663.25       +18.25       +2.83%

Wheat May 2014       659       +18.25       +2.85%

Wheat Jul 2014       664.25       +18.25       +2.83%

Wheat Sep 2014       672.75       +18.5       +2.83%

Wheat Dec 2014       684       +18.5       +2.78%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2014       751       +5       +0.67%

Spring Wheat May 2014       707       +14.25       +2.06%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014       704.5       +16.25       +2.36%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014       709.5       +17       +2.45%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014       719.75       +18       +2.57%

 

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014       722       +17.25       +2.45%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014       728.5       +17.25       +2.43%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014       725       +20.5       +2.91%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014       731.25       +19.75       +2.78%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014       741.25       +19.25       +2.67%

 

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.09 at $100.03 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.21 cents US, up from 90.05 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1085 Cdn.

In unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 34.83 points, or 0.24 percent, at 14,267.23.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 67.56 points or 0.41 percent, to 16,351.12.

The S&P 500 lost 9.52 points or 0.51 percent, to 1,867.65.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 27.26 points or 0.63 percent, to 4,307.188.

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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