Wheat jumps higher on slow US harvest, canola lower on profit taking

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Published: June 23, 2015

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New crop canola was slightly weaker Tuesday but winter wheat futures jumped more than three percent higher on the slow pace of the U.S. harvest.
Wheat was also supported by declining corn crop conditions in the eastern Midwest due to excessive rain.
Minneapolis wheat futures rose a little less than three percent as the American spring wheat crop condition improved.
Canola and soybeans were a little lower on profit taking after the strong run up of the past two days.
However, oilseeds continue to be supported by the dry weather and uneven canola crops in much of Western Canada and the excess rain that is delaying seeding in the U.S. Midwest. The trend continues this week as mostly dry weather is expected on the Prairies while rain is expected over various parts of the Midwest Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

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The USDA on Monday said that 90 percent of the soybean crop had been seeded, five points lower than the five year average.
The USDA’s crop condition reports show the soybean good-to-excellent ratings fell to 65 percent from 67 percent a week earlier.
The USDA also said that 19 percent of the winter wheat crop was harvested, well back of the five year average of 31 percent.
The winter wheat condition rating nationally fell to 41 percent good to excellent, down from 43 percent the week before.
The biggest declines were in soft red wheat states.
The condition of the spring wheat crop improved to 71 percent good to excellent from 70 percent the week before.
Wheat is also supported by dry weather in much of the Canadian Prairies and in western Europe, especially France.
The USDA rated the domestic corn crop at 71 percent good to excellent, down from 73 percent a week earlier.
One negative for canola is the dropping crush margin, which is the value of the oil and meal over the value of the seed.
Seed costs are rising faster than the value of the oil and meal, making it less profitable to crush the oilseed.
The margin is about $100 per tonne less than it was last year at this time.
That was reflected in the weekly statistics from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
Members processed 130,383 tonnes in the week to June 17, down 12 percent from the week before and only about 65 percent of the crush capacity, compared to the year’s average of almost 82 percent.
The trade will soon be positioning to prepare for the June 30 seeded acreage reports from Statistcs Canada and the USDA.
Those reports will, as aways, be somewhat quetionable because of the time lag between when the survey was conducted and when the report comes out.
In Canada, the May frosts that prompted reseeding of around a million acres will cloud the final seeded acreage numbers. In the U.S., heavy rain has complicated farmers’s seeding efforts.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 63 cents to US$61.01 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US81.12 cents, down from 81.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2327.
Greece proposed new reforms on Monday, which were cautiously welcomed by euro zone finance ministers.
New U.S. single-family home sales increased in May to the highest in more than seven years, brightening the outlook for the housing market.
Nearing the close of trade, the Toronto and American stock markets were higher than the previous day’s close.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2015 506.30 -7.30 -1.42%
Canola Nov 2015 513.10 -2.40 -0.47%
Canola Jan 2016 509.80 -0.30 -0.06%
Canola Mar 2016 506.40 unch 0.00%
Canola May 2016 502.50 +0.50 +0.10%

Milling Wheat Jul 2015 219.00 +7.00 +3.30%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 224.00 +7.00 +3.23%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 224.00 +7.00 +3.23%

Durum Wheat Jul 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 298.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 303.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2015 201.00 -3.00 -1.47%
Barley Oct 2015 196.00 -3.00 -1.51%
Barley Dec 2015 201.00 -3.00 -1.47%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2015 987.5 -2 -0.20%
Soybeans Aug 2015 972.75 -1.5 -0.15%
Soybeans Sep 2015 961.25 +0.25 +0.03%
Soybeans Nov 2015 960.75 +1.5 +0.16%
Soybeans Jan 2016 966 +1.25 +0.13%
Soybeans Mar 2016 966 unch 0.00%

Soybean Meal Jul 2015 331.9 -1.7 -0.51%
Soybean Meal Aug 2015 327.3 -0.5 -0.15%
Soybean Meal Sep 2015 321.8 -1 -0.31%

Soybean Oil Jul 2015 32.82 -0.1 -0.30%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015 32.9 -0.09 -0.27%
Soybean Oil Sep 2015 32.96 -0.1 -0.30%

Corn Jul 2015 367.5 +7.5 +2.08%
Corn Sep 2015 372 +7.75 +2.13%
Corn Dec 2015 381.25 +7.75 +2.07%
Corn Mar 2016 392.5 +7.5 +1.95%
Corn May 2016 399.5 +7.5 +1.91%

Oats Jul 2015 254.25 +4.25 +1.70%
Oats Sep 2015 261.5 +4 +1.55%
Oats Dec 2015 267.5 +4 +1.52%
Oats Mar 2016 273 +1.5 +0.55%
Oats May 2016 278 +2.75 +1.00%

Wheat Jul 2015 521.5 +20.25 +4.04%
Wheat Sep 2015 527 +21 +4.15%
Wheat Dec 2015 539 +19.5 +3.75%
Wheat Mar 2016 551 +18.25 +3.43%
Wheat May 2016 558.75 +18 +3.33%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2015 569.75 +16.75 +3.03%
Spring Wheat Sep 2015 581 +17 +3.01%
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 594.25 +17.25 +2.99%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 606.75 +17 +2.88%
Spring Wheat May 2016 614.5 +17 +2.85%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015 530.25 +18.25 +3.56%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015 539.75 +18.75 +3.60%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 559.25 +18.25 +3.37%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 573.25 +18 +3.24%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 582 +18.25 +3.24%

About the author

D'Arce McMillan

Markets editor, Saskatoon newsroom

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