Wheat down on improving U.S. harvest weather forecast

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Published: June 15, 2015

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Forecasts for improving weather in the U.S. hard red winter wheat areas helped knock wheat futures prices lower Monday, continuing the downward skid of recent sessions.

Most wheat contracts were down about 15 cents per bushel.

The recent weakness in wheat has reversed a spurt of strength early this month.

U.S. winter wheat areas are in better condition than many had expected a few weeks ago and harvest can proceed with a good field situation.

Analyst Errol Anderson of Pro Market Communications thought the Monday wheat selloff was partly due to wheat’s status as a reflector of world economic conditions. U.S. stock markets early Monday fell sharply on Greece’s debt problems and reignited fears of the Eurozone unraveling.

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“What’s bugging wheat? It’s actually the stock market,” said Anderson.

U.S. wheat is also under pressure from strong competition from low cost suppliers such as Russia.

After the markets closed, the USDA’s weekly crop condition report said that the good-to-excellent rating for winter wheat stayed the same at 43 percent, however the fair rating slipped to 35 percent from 37 and the poor to very poor rating rose to 22 percent from 20 percent the week before.

The decline was in Oklahoma and Texas.

Spring wheat conditions improved slightly to 70 percent good to excellent.

Corn futures were challenged by notions that China will work hard to reduce imports this year and on generally good weather in the Midwest.

Most other crops were slightly weaker Monday. Canola followed soybeans lower rather than soybean oil, which was a good thing because soy oil fell harder than the beans.

Canola crops on the western Prairies are still suffering from drought, even with weekend showers.

The Australian crop is dry too.

Commodity markets were mixed.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 44 cents to US$59.52 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was US81.15 cents, down from 81.27 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2323.

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 14.90 points of 0.10 percent to close at 14,756.05.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 105.9 points, or 0.59 percent, to 17,792.94, the S&P 500 lost 9.52 points, or 0.45 percent, to 2,084.59 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 21.13 points, or 0.42 percent, to 5,029.97.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2015       482.70       -2.50       -0.52%

Canola Nov 2015       479.90       -3.30       -0.68%

Canola Jan 2016       476.90       -3.30       -0.69%

Canola Mar 2016       474.40       -2.90       -0.61%

Canola May 2016       471.40       -2.50       -0.53%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2015       209.00       -6.00       -2.79%

Milling Wheat Oct 2015       214.00       -6.00       -2.73%

Milling Wheat Dec 2015       214.00       -6.00       -2.73%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2015       298.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2015       298.00       unch       0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2015       303.00       unch       0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2015       205.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Oct 2015       200.00       unch       0.00%

Barley Dec 2015       205.00       unch       0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2015       937.75       -2.25       -0.24%

Soybeans Aug 2015       920.75       -0.75       -0.08%

Soybeans Sep 2015       907.75       +0.25       +0.03%

Soybeans Nov 2015       904.25       unch       0.00%

Soybeans Jan 2016       911.25       -0.25       -0.03%

Soybeans Mar 2016       916       +0.5       +0.05%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2015       313.2       -4.2       -1.32%

Soybean Meal Aug 2015       304.6       -3       -0.98%

Soybean Meal Sep 2015       299.8       -2.2       -0.73%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2015       32.69       -0.45       -1.36%

Soybean Oil Aug 2015       32.74       -0.42       -1.27%

Soybean Oil Sep 2015       32.8       -0.4       -1.20%

 

Corn Jul 2015       348.25       -4.75       -1.35%

Corn Sep 2015       352.75       -6       -1.67%

Corn Dec 2015       363.5       -6       -1.62%

Corn Mar 2016       375       -6       -1.57%

Corn May 2016       382.25       -6       -1.55%

 

Oats Jul 2015       252.25       -3.25       -1.27%

Oats Sep 2015       259.5       -3       -1.14%

Oats Dec 2015       266.5       -0.75       -0.28%

Oats Mar 2016       273.75       -0.5       -0.18%

Oats May 2016       280.5       -0.5       -0.18%

 

Wheat Jul 2015       489.25       -14.5       -2.88%

Wheat Sep 2015       495.25       -15.25       -2.99%

Wheat Dec 2015       509.75       -15       -2.86%

Wheat Mar 2016       523.25       -14.5       -2.70%

Wheat May 2016       531.75       -14.5       -2.65%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2015       545.5       -15.75       -2.81%

Spring Wheat Sep 2015       554.25       -16       -2.81%

Spring Wheat Dec 2015       567       -16       -2.74%

Spring Wheat Mar 2016       580.5       -15.5       -2.60%

Spring Wheat May 2016       589.5       -15       -2.48%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015       508.75       -17.25       -3.28%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2015       518.25       -17.5       -3.27%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015       535.75       -16.75       -3.03%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016       549.25       -16.5       -2.92%

Hard Red Wheat May 2016       558.25       -16.25       -2.83%

 

ed.white@producer.com

 

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Ed White

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