Crop futures generally fell again on Tuesday with spring wheat leading the way down.
Canola was also lower, but the decline of about one percent was not as bad as in other crops.
A more benign weather outlook for the U.S. Midwest is the prime price-negative factor in the market, which largely ignored the larger than expected decline in soybean condition ratings in Monday’s USDA crop condition report.
The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday afternoon that 57 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, down from 61 percent last week. Analysts had expected a reading of 60 percent.
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The forecast for a lot of rain in the driest parts of western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, as well as smaller amounts in dry southern Illinois spells relief for corn and soybean there.
But the forecast for the Prairies shows little rain.
Under sunny skies, temperatures on the Prairies are expected to rise as the week progresses into the high 20s and low 30s C.
Looking further out into the first week of August, the Canadian Prairies remain fairly dry but there is potential for significant rain in Iowa.
US SPRING WHEAT TOUR
Minneapolis spring wheat fell more than 30 cents a bushel or four percent. There was some indication that the second day of sharp losses in spring wheat was associated with early reports from the Wheat Quality Council’s tour of North Dakota. But also wheat is under harvest pressure as the U.S. winter wheat campaign heads towards its conclusion.
The spring wheat tour focused this morning on eastern parts of the state where moisture has been more plentiful.
Yields were below longer term averages but better than expected.
But tweets from tour participants in central and western legs of the state where it has been much drier show very low yields and a number of fields already baled for feed.
The heaviest concentration of wheat production is in the northern and eastern parts of the state.
The tour wraps up Thursday.
The July USDA spring wheat average yield forecast was 40.3 bushels per acre, down 6.9 bushels from last year. The next USDA report is set for Aug. 10.
CANADIAN FEED PRICES
Feed barley in the Lethbridge area has backed off about $10 a tonne recently to $210.
A few barley fields in southern Alberta are already being harvested. It has been cooler and some places have received showers. Also the U.S. corn market has come off recent highs.
But overall, the Prairie production outlook is concerning and there is not much downside price risk just yet.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.55 US$47.89 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.961 cents, little changed from 79.91 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2506.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 73.68 points, or 0.49 percent, at 15,202.37.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 100.26 points, or 0.47 percent, to 21,613.43, the S&P 500 gained 7.17 points, or 0.29 percent, to 2,477.08 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.37 points, or 0.02 percent, to 6,412.17.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2017 489.60 -4.40 -0.89%
Canola Jan 2018 495.00 -4.90 -0.98%
Canola Mar 2018 499.20 -5.20 -1.03%
Canola May 2018 502.60 -4.80 -0.95%
Canola Jul 2018 505.80 -5.10 -1.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 268.00 -16.00 -5.63%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017 274.00 -17.00 -5.84%
Milling Wheat Mar 2018 281.00 -15.00 -5.07%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 308.00 +3.00 +0.98%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017 309.00 +21.00 +7.29%
Durum Wheat Mar 2018 291.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2018 140.00 unch 0.00%
WE HAVE DETECTED A PROBLEM IN THE FEED FOR OUR USUAL FORMAT. THE FOLLOWING IS ACCURATE BUT THE PRICES ARE DISPLAYED WITH FRACTIONS INSTEAD OF DECIMALS. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50. -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Aug 17 981-4s -16-0 -1.60%
Soybeans Sep 17 986-0s -16-4 -1.65%
Soybeans Nov 17 992-6s -17-2 -1.71%
Soybeans Jan 18 1001-4s -17-4 -1.72%
Soybeans Mar 18 1005-4s -16-6 -1.64%
Soybean Meal Aug 17 318.3s -7.6 -2.33%
Soybean Meal Sep 17 320.3s -7.5 -2.29%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 322.0s -7.6 -2.31%
Soybean Oil Aug 17 33.50s -0.11 -0.33%
Soybean Oil Sep 17 33.62s -0.11 -0.33%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 33.73s -0.09 -0.27%
Corn Sep 17 368-6s -8-4 -2.25%
Corn Dec 17 382-2s -8-4 -2.18%
Corn Mar 18 393-4s -8-4 -2.11%
Corn May 18 398-6s -8-2 -2.03%
Corn Jul 18 403-4s -8-4 -2.06%
Oats Sep 17 282-0s -6-6 -2.34%
Oats Dec 17 280-4s -6-6 -2.35%
Oats Mar 18 280-4s -6-2 -2.18%
Oats May 18 280-2s -5-4 -1.92%
Oats Jul 18 279-0s -5-4 -1.93%
Wheat Sep 17 474-0s -14-6 -3.02%
Wheat Dec 17 499-0s -14-4 -2.82%
Wheat Mar 18 522-0s -14-2 -2.66%
Wheat May 18 533-4s -13-4 -2.47%
Wheat Jul 18 541-0s -11-4 -2.08%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 17 717-4s -33-0 -4.40%
Spring Wheat Dec 17 727-0s -31-4 -4.15%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 727-4s -29-0 -3.83%
Spring Wheat May 18 719-6s -26-0 -3.49%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 709-0s -20-2 -2.78%
Kansas
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17 472-6s -14-6 -3.03%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 499-4s -15-0 -2.92%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 517-0s -14-6 -2.77%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 530-6s -14-6 -2.70%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 545-0s -13-2 -2.37%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound
Live Cattle (Pit) Aug 17 113.175s -0.700 -0.61%
Live Cattle (Pit) Oct 17 112.775s -1.625 -1.42%
Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 17 113.625s -1.550 -1.35%
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Aug 17 146.525s -1.925 -1.30%
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Sep 17 147.150s -1.525 -1.03%
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Oct 17 146.425s -1.175 -0.80%
Lean Hogs (Pit) Aug 17 81.450s +1.075 +1.34%
Lean Hogs (Pit) Oct 17 66.850s +0.400 +0.60%
Lean Hogs (Pit) Dec 17 61.550s +0.375 +0.61%
