Weak loonie supports canola futures as soybeans dip

Canola futures closed slightly lower on Thursday after being slightly higher through most of the morning.

The loonie fell 6/10ths of a cent helping canola to perform better than soybean futures.

Soybeans fell about one percent while nearby corn fell more than 3.5 percent. Overnight rain in parts of the Midwest was better than expected.

Corn was especially under pressure because the Pro Farmer sponsored industry tour of the Midwest is finding generally very strong corn yield potential while the soybean outlook is more mixed.

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The Pro Farm tour is scheduled to release its forecasts for U.S. corn and soybeans on Friday afternoon.

Cash bids for old crop corn are rising because farmers are hanging on to their final supplies of the 2012 crop hoping to drive the price higher in the weeks before the harvest makes new crop supply available.

Europe is expecting a good rapeseed crop this year. The German Farmers Association DBV today pegged that country’s rapeseed crop at 5.6 million tonnes, up from 4.8 million last year.

The forecast is for warm weather across the Canadian Prairies for the next week, which should help ripen crops that are in a race against the first frost.

Forecasters are rolling out predictions of when the first frost might appear. Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. says atmospheric cycles are lining up for a frost possibility in the first week to 10 days of September.

Accuweather said frost could appear earlier than normal on the Canadian Prairies. See its forecast here.

Environment Canada however, forecasts warmer than normal condition for the Aug. 16-Sept. 15 period. See its outlook here.

Argentina’s agriculture ministry lowered its 2013-14 wheat areaforecast to 3.9 million hectares from 4 million previously, Reuters reported.

The Canadian dollar is falling because the U.S. buck is rising against most currencies. The prospect that the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus bond buying program leads to the expectation that bond yields in the U.S. will improve over those in other countries, so money is moving out of developing nations, such as India and Mexico, and into U.S. currency bonds.

There is an agricultural trade implication. As the U.S. buck strengthens, it makes it more expensive for countries with weaker currencies to buy agricultural commodities priced in U.S. dollars.

This could slow U.S. exports, which would have a depressing impact on U.S. crop futures.

The impact is already affecting Canadian pulse crop sales. The Indian rupee is falling against the Canadian and American dollars, making it more expensive for Indian importers to buy Canadian peas and lentils.

ICE Futures lowered the durum futures price, but raised the December milling wheat futures price. There was no trade.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2013 509.60 -1.40 -0.27%

Canola Jan 2014 515.30 -0.60 -0.12%

Canola Mar 2014 521.00 -0.30 -0.06%

Canola May 2014 525.60 unch 0.00%

Canola Jul 2014 530.40 +0.30 +0.06%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 251.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013 257.00 +1.00 +0.39%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 262.00 +1.00 +0.38%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 284.00 -2.00 -0.70%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013 288.00 -2.00 -0.69%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 297.00 -3.00 -1.00%

Barley Oct 2013 189.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 2013 1322 -11 -0.83%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1286.75 -17.25 -1.32%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1288.5 -17 -1.30%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1269.25 -12.25 -0.96%

Soybeans May 2014 1244.5 -9.75 -0.78%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1245.75 -7 -0.56%

Soybean Meal Sep 2013 413.3 -8.2 -1.95%

Soybean Meal Oct 2013 402.3 -7.6 -1.85%

Soybean Meal Dec 2013 400.3 -7.8 -1.91%

Soybean Oil Sep 2013 42.43 -0.39 -0.91%

Soybean Oil Oct 2013 42.49 -0.41 -0.96%

Soybean Oil Dec 2013 42.76 -0.41 -0.95%

Corn Sep 2013 487.5 -10.5 -2.11%

Corn Dec 2013 464.5 -18.75 -3.88%

Corn Mar 2014 477 -18.75 -3.78%

Corn May 2014 485 -18 -3.58%

Corn Jul 2014 490.75 -18.25 -3.59%

Oats Sep 2013 382.5 -1.5 -0.39%

Oats Dec 2013 332.5 -3.5 -1.04%

Oats Mar 2014 336.75 -3.5 -1.03%

Oats May 2014 334.25 -4.25 -1.26%

Oats Jul 2014 326.5 -4.25 -1.28%

Wheat Sep 2013 630.5 -8.25 -1.29%

Wheat Dec 2013 640.5 -8.75 -1.35%

Wheat Mar 2014 652.25 -8.5 -1.29%

Wheat May 2014 659.5 -7.5 -1.12%

Wheat Jul 2014 655 -7.5 -1.13%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 719.25 -9.5 -1.30%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 726.5 -9.25 -1.26%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 740 -8 -1.07%

Spring Wheat May 2014 748 -7 -0.93%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 753.25 -5 -0.66%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 694.25 -5.25 -0.75%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 695 -6.75 -0.96%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 701.5 -7 -0.99%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 704.25 -7.25 -1.02%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 694.75 -7.25 -1.03%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.18 at $105.03 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 95.13 cents US, down from 95.76 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0512 Cdn.

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits last week held near a six-year low and U.S. manufacturing activity rose this month, suggesting the economy is starting to find firmer footing.

There was also bullish data from China and Europe, indicating stronger global economic activity.

Technical problems halted trading on the Nasdaq exchange for an extended period today.

In early tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 101.27 points, or 0.81 percent, at 12,674.35.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 67.27 points, or 0.45 percent, at 14,964.82.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 14.19 points, or 0.86 percent, at 1,656.99.

The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 38.92 points, or 1.08 percent, at 3,638.71.