Ouch!
The United States Department of Agriculture surprised the market with March 1 grain stocks that were above expectations. The implication was that livestock feeding was lower than expected.
Corn seeding intentions were also above expectations but soybean area was below the forecast. Forecasted spring wheat acreage was a little more than expected, but durum area was less than expected.
Old crop corn fell the 40-cent daily limit and options indicate it could fall further when trade resumes after the weekend.
All crop prices fell after the report, but canola held on better than other crops, declining about two percent while corn was down more than five percent.
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May closed at $625.50, down $12.50, while November closed at $554.50, down $10.50. Markets are closed Friday.
For the week, May canola fell $8.80 and November fell $10.
The seeding intentions report was not a strong market mover. Although corn acres were a little high and soybean a little low, the numbers were not a huge surprise and were almost exactly the same as last year. The only eyebrow raiser was durum, which came in significantly below expectations.
The stocks were the focus of trade, with corn, soybeans and wheat stocks significantly higher than expected. Traders had thought that the strong livestock feed demand indicated in the previous quarter would carry on into this quarter but it appears to have dropped in a big way.
The good thing is that the lower prices might cause end users that have been buying hand to mouth to step up with larger purchases now. Farmers will be reluctant to deliver until prices again begin to climb.
Stocks
The USDA reported March 1 corn stocks were 5.40 billion bushels. The average of trade estimates was 5.013 billion.
U.S. soybean stocks were pegged at 999 million bu., above a range of trade estimates for 905 million to 984 million.
U.S. wheat stocks as of March 1 at 1.235 billion bu., topped forecasts for 1.177 billion.
Acreage
The prospective plantings report put U.S. soybean acres at 77.126 million acres, below market forecasts for 78.394 million.
The report said farmers plan to seed 97.3 million acres of corn. The pre report analysts’ average estimate was 97.252 million. Last year 97.155 million.
Area of all wheat is 56.4 million acres. The pre report analysts’ average estimate was 56.442 million Last year 55.736
USDA says farmers will seed 12.7 million acres of spring wheat. The pre report analysts’ average estimate was 12.459 million. Last year 12.289 million.
Durum area was pegged at 1.75 million acres. The pre report analysts’ average estimate was 2.117 million. Last year’s area was 2.123 million.
Canola
The USDA report put U.S. canola at 1.654 million acres, down six percent. North Dakota canola planting intentions are down 16 percent at 1.23 million acres.
North Dakota
The report said North Dakota farmers would plant:
6.2 million acres of spring wheat, up eight percent,
1.1 million acres of durum, down 18 percent
4.9 million acres of soybeans, up three percent,
4.1 million acres of corn, up 14 percent.
950,000 acres of barley, down 10 percent.
260,000 acres of oats, up 30 percent.
In other news Reuters reported that Russia’s agriculture ministry has cut its 2013 grain crop forecast to between 90 million and 95 million tonnes, from the previously expected 95 million tonnes, the Interfax news agency reported on Thursday, citing an unnamed source in the ministry.
Statistics Canada’s seeding intentions repor come out April 24. It March 31 stocks report is released May 3.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada in dollars per tonne
Canola May 2013 625.50 -12.50 -1.96%
Canola Jul 2013 608.80 -13.40 -2.15%
Canola Nov 2013 554.50 -10.50 -1.86%
Canola Jan 2014 555.00 -11.00 -1.94%
Canola Mar 2014 551.50 -11.50 -2.04%
Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2013 311.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 314.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 299.30 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
U.S. crop in cents per bushel, soy meal in dollars per short ton and soy oil in cents per pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2013 1404.75 -49 -3.37%
Soybeans Jul 2013 1385.5 -45.5 -3.18%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1346.75 -38.75 -2.80%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1285 -30.25 -2.30%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1251.5 -26.75 -2.09%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1256.25 -26.25 -2.05%
Soybean Meal May 2013 404.6 -18.5 -4.37%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 400.5 -17.8 -4.26%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 385.5 -14.8 -3.70%
Soybean Oil May 2013 50.11 -0.71 -1.40%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 50.35 -0.68 -1.33%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 50.34 -0.6 -1.18%
Corn May 2013 695.25 -40 -5.44%
Corn Jul 2013 676 -40 -5.59%
Corn Sep 2013 563 -40 -6.63%
Corn Dec 2013 538.5 -32.5 -5.69%
Corn Mar 2014 548.25 -31.75 -5.47%
Oats May 2013 396.25 -16.25 -3.94%
Oats Jul 2013 391.25 -15.75 -3.87%
Oats Sep 2013 378.25 -7.75 -2.01%
Oats Dec 2013 361 -8.25 -2.23%
Oats Mar 2014 369.5 -8.25 -2.18%
Chicago soft red winter
Wheat May 2013 687.75 -49 -6.65%
Wheat Jul 2013 691 -45 -6.11%
Wheat Sep 2013 699.25 -43.25 -5.82%
Wheat Dec 2013 713.25 -40 -5.31%
Wheat Mar 2014 726.5 -37.75 -4.94%
Minneapolis hard red spring
Spring Wheat May 2013 780.25 -32.75 -4.03%
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 780.5 -32.25 -3.97%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 780.75 -32.25 -3.97%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 789.5 -31.5 -3.84%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 804 -30 -3.60%
Kansas City hard red winter
KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 726.75 -47.25 -6.10%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 732.25 -46.75 -6.00%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 743.75 -46.25 -5.85%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 759.5 -45.25 -5.62%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 771.75 -45 -5.51%
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 98.46 cents US, up from 98.33 on Wednesday. The U.S. buck was $1.0156 Cdn.
Crude oil in New York rose 65 cents to $97.23 per barrel.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 50.25 points, or 0.40 percent, at 12,749.90.
The Canadian benchmark index rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with a 10 percent jump in the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 gained 6.34 points on the day, or 0.41 percent, to end at a new record of 1,569.19.
The Dow industrials, which has been setting new highs since March 5 when it topped its 2007 peak, closed Thursday at 14,578.54.
For the day, the Dow rose 52.38 points, or 0.36 percent.
The Nasdaq Composite added 11 points, or 0.34 percent, to close at 3,267.52.
