Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly reports either had no impact on grain markets or such balanced impacts that it seemed like almost nothing happened.
Errol Anderson of Pro Market thinks it was the latter.
“The global corn ending stocks were relatively bullish, but the global wheat ending stocks were relatively bearish, so USDA threw us a mixed bag of data,” said Anderson.
USDA revised down its U.S. corn production due to smaller acres but higher yield, pegging the crop at just 30 million bushels less than previously guessed.
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Soybean production was also dropped, by 47 million bushels from the September estimate, to 3.888 million bushels.
That was below an average of trade estimates for 3.908 billion.
USDA found a smaller U.S. wheat crop, but that was already anticipated by the market. It also found weak U.S. exports and slightly bigger than expected world wheat year end stocks.
It pegged global wheat ending stocks at 228.49 million tonnes, a record high that was up
nearly two million from September and topped a range of trade expectations.
“It reinforced the supply of wheat in the world. We’re not going to grind out of it any time soon.”
Over the week November canola fell 0.5 percent, mostly because of the stronger loonie. November soybeans rose 1.3 percent, corn fell 1.6 percent and spring wheat was up 4.3 percent, mainly on concern about dry weather in the Black Sea region and Australia.
Anderson said currency volatility is playing an outsized role in grain and other commodity markets, so the weakening of the greenback has been a bullish influence.
“That’s probably got more influence. U.S. grain (futures, which are denominated in U.S. dollars), might get some stability,” said Anderson.
“I think the market will tend to focus on the currency, not the report.”
The Canadian canola crush for the week was a record high at 184,493 tonnes, up 11.6 percent from the week before and representing 92.4 percent of capacity.
Commodity markets had a good week, benefiting from a short-covering rally spurred by the U.S. dollar decline that followed indications from the Federal Reserve that the urge to raise interest rates is declining.
Copper prices also surged after Glencore, the out-of-favour global commodities powerhouse, announced plans to cut copper production.
Zinc and crude oil both shot up.
Some of the bullishness in commodities this week came as a bounce back from recent selloffs.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York today were up 20 cents to US$49.63 per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was US77.24 cents, up from 76.82 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was C$1.2946.
Stock markets had their best week of the year, rising as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this year faded. The TSX composite rose almost five percent, the S&P 500 gained 3.3 percent, the Dow was up 3.7 percent and Nasdaq rose 2.6 percent.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2015 469.50 -0.60 -0.13%
Canola Jan 2016 474.40 -0.60 -0.13%
Canola Mar 2016 477.00 -0.10 -0.02%
Canola May 2016 477.40 +0.20 +0.04%
Milling Wheat Oct 2015 235.00 -1.00 -0.42%
Milling Wheat Dec 2015 239.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Mar 2016 243.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2015 335.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2016 340.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2015 190.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2015 185.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2016 187.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2015 885.75 +4.5 +0.51%
Soybeans Jan 2016 890.5 +4.25 +0.48%
Soybeans Mar 2016 894.25 +4.25 +0.48%
Soybeans May 2016 899 +4.5 +0.50%
Soybeans Jul 2016 905.5 +4.5 +0.50%
Soybeans Aug 2016 905 +4.25 +0.47%
Soybean Meal Oct 2015 306.9 +3.1 +1.02%
Soybean Meal Dec 2015 307.8 +3.5 +1.15%
Soybean Meal Jan 2016 306.9 +3.4 +1.12%
Soybean Oil Oct 2015 28.17 unch 0.00%
Soybean Oil Dec 2015 28.34 -0.02 -0.07%
Soybean Oil Jan 2016 28.61 -0.02 -0.07%
Corn Dec 2015 382.75 -8.5 -2.17%
Corn Mar 2016 393.5 -8.25 -2.05%
Corn May 2016 400 -7.75 -1.90%
Corn Jul 2016 405.25 -7.75 -1.88%
Corn Sep 2016 401 -5.25 -1.29%
Oats Dec 2015 227.25 +8.5 +3.89%
Oats Mar 2016 227.75 +7.25 +3.29%
Oats Jul 2016 232.5 +7 +3.10%
Oats Sep 2016 234.75 +7 +3.07%
Wheat Dec 2015 509.25 -2.25 -0.44%
Wheat Mar 2016 516.75 -2.25 -0.43%
Wheat May 2016 521.75 -2.25 -0.43%
Wheat Jul 2016 526 -2 -0.38%
Wheat Sep 2016 534.75 -2.25 -0.42%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2015 529.5 -1.5 -0.28%
Spring Wheat Mar 2016 542 -1.25 -0.23%
Spring Wheat May 2016 550.5 -1.5 -0.27%
Spring Wheat Jul 2016 559.5 -1.5 -0.27%
Spring Wheat Sep 2016 569.75 +2.5 +0.44%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2015 500.25 -3.25 -0.65%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2016 514.75 -3 -0.58%
Hard Red Wheat May 2016 524.25 -3 -0.57%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2016 534.5 -2.75 -0.51%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2016 547.75 -2.75 -0.50%
