It seemed for a while this morning the market was unsure what to make of the U.S. Department of Agriculture grain stocks and seeding forecast reports.
But by the close of trade, it was clearly a bullish day for corn, wheat and old crop soybeans.
Canola closed lower but above the day’s lows and new crop soybeans were also lower.
Canola’s weakness mostly came from palm oil, which posted its biggest one-day decline in a year on disappointing monthly Malaysian export reports.
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The USDA said corn stocks were 7.01 billion bushels, less than the 7.099 billion bu., which was the average of analysts’ pre report expectations.
Also bullish for corn was the USDA seeding survey that indicated American farmers intend to seed 91.7 million acres. The average of analyst’s expectations was 92.748 million.
That fueled a more than two percent rally in corn, pushing the nearby contract above $5 a bushel for the first time since late August.
That pulled up wheat despite forecasts that indicate the southern plains this week might be a little wetter than what was previously forecast. On the other hand, it was a mostly dry, dusty weekend in the region and weekly crop conditions deteriorated.
Kansas winter wheat rated poor-to-very poor rose to 25 percent from 21 percent the week before. Fair was 43 percent, down from 46 the week before and good-to-excellent fell to 32 percent from 33 percent.
Texas winter wheat rated poor-to-very poor rose to 59 percent from 55 percent the week before.
The poor-to-very poor rating in Oklahoma rose to 44 percent from 42 percent.
The USDA seeding forecast supported spring wheat futures.
Growers told the USDA they expected to seed 12 million acres to spring wheat. The average of analysts’ estimates was 12.27 million acres.
On the other hand, the wheat stocks report was a little bearish. All wheat stocks were 1.06 billion bu. Analysts expected 1.042 billion bu.
USDA put quarterly soybean stocks at 0.992 billion bu., a little shy of the 0.989 billion that analysts expected.
That shows that the pace of soybean use must slow to avoid running out of the oilseed before the end of the year. That means price must be high enough to ration demand.
That rallied old crop soybean futures but new crop was pressured a little lower by the seeding outlook.
USDA said soybean planting intentions were 81.5 million acres, up six percent from last year and higher than the 81.075 million that analysts expected.
USDA all wheat planting intentions were 55.8 million acres. The average of analysts’ expectations was 56.577 million.
USDA estimated U.S. winter wheat plantings for 2014 at 42.0 million acres, up from 41.9 million in January. USDA added acres in Kansas and cut acres in Texas, changes that analysts said raised expectations for hard red winter wheat production.
USDA put durum planting intentions at 1.8 million acres. Analysts expected 1.794 million.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola May 2014 451.30 -2.20 -0.49%
Canola Jul 2014 461.00 -2.10 -0.45%
Canola Nov 2014 476.50 -2.20 -0.46%
Canola Jan 2015 483.80 -2.40 -0.49%
Canola Mar 2015 490.70 -2.80 -0.57%
Milling Wheat May 2014 222.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Jul 2014 220.00 +1.00 +0.46%
Milling Wheat Oct 2014 222.00 +1.00 +0.45%
Durum Wheat May 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2014 250.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2014 252.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 130.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2014 128.50 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2014 1464 +27.5 +1.91%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1429.5 +21.75 +1.55%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1361 +9.5 +0.70%
Soybeans Sep 2014 1248 +1 +0.08%
Soybeans Nov 2014 1187.25 -3.25 -0.27%
Soybeans Jan 2015 1192.5 -3 -0.25%
Soybean Meal May 2014 479.3 +10.9 +2.33%
Soybean Meal Jul 2014 463.6 +9.9 +2.18%
Soybean Meal Aug 2014 436.6 +5.7 +1.32%
Soybean Oil May 2014 40.42 -0.06 -0.15%
Soybean Oil Jul 2014 40.63 -0.08 -0.20%
Soybean Oil Aug 2014 40.5 -0.16 -0.39%
Corn May 2014 502 +10 +2.03%
Corn Jul 2014 506.75 +10.5 +2.12%
Corn Sep 2014 502 +10.75 +2.19%
Corn Dec 2014 498.25 +11 +2.26%
Corn Mar 2015 505 +9.75 +1.97%
Oats May 2014 399 -3 -0.75%
Oats Jul 2014 355.5 -3.25 -0.91%
Oats Sep 2014 347.75 +4.5 +1.31%
Oats Dec 2014 343 +4 +1.18%
Oats Mar 2015 340.75 +6.5 +1.94%
Wheat May 2014 697.25 +1.75 +0.25%
Wheat Jul 2014 701.5 +2.25 +0.32%
Wheat Sep 2014 708.75 +2 +0.28%
Wheat Dec 2014 718 +1.75 +0.24%
Wheat Mar 2015 725.5 +1.75 +0.24%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2014 742.75 +3 +0.41%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 740.75 +1.75 +0.24%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 745.5 +3.25 +0.44%
Spring Wheat Dec 2014 753.25 +3 +0.40%
Spring Wheat Mar 2015 758.25 +3 +0.40%
Kansas City
KC HRW Wheat May 2014 764 +0.5 +0.07%
KC HRW Wheat Jul 2014 765.25 +1.5 +0.20%
KC HRW Wheat Sep 2014 770.5 +3.75 +0.49%
KC HRW Wheat Dec 2014 780.25 +4.75 +0.61%
KC HRW Wheat Mar 2015 782 +5.25 +0.68%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped 9 cents at $101.58 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 90.47 cents US, up from 90.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.1053 Cdn.
