USDA bullish corn, bearish wheat, neutral canola

Corn futures rose about five percent after the U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly production and stocks reports turned out more bullish than expected.

The reports were fairly neutral for oilseeds and bearish for wheat, even though U.S. winter wheat acreage is less than expected.

March canola closed at $429.80 per tonne, up 70 cents. From the close last Friday to the close today, March fell $12.20.

The loonie was down more than half a cent today on weak job numbers for December. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent from 6.9 percent.

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U.S. grains: Soybean futures hit one-month high on U.S.-China trade hopes

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hit their highest level in a month on Monday on renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade talks after U.S. President Donald Trump said he believed Beijing would agree to a soybean trade deal and will buy U.S. soy again.

The technical trend is down for canola, but many observers believe it is under priced compared to competing oilseeds. The transportation logistics problem is a critical problem for the price.

Corn was the big winner in the USDA reports. With greater supply from the big U.S. crop and much lower prices, USDA said users stepped up their demand, reducing the forecast for year-end stocks.

USDA pegged the U.S. corn crop at 13.925 billion bushels with yield at 158.8 bu. per acre. The trade expected 14.066 billion bu. with yield at 161.2 bu. per acre.

The report put U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.631 billion bu. The trade expected 1.861 billion.

World corn ending stocks were 160.23 million tonnes, down from traders’ expectation of 163.2 million and the December report’s 162.46 million.

Soybean production at 3.289 billion bu. was about the same as expected, as were US ending stocks.

USDA sees Brazil soybean crop at 89 million tonnes up one million from December. That was very close to the trade expectation 89.064 million.

USDA kept its Argentina soybean production figure at 54.5 million tonnes, down from the trade expectation of 55.2 million.

WHEAT

USDA said American farmers planted less winter wheat than expected, but the bullishness of that number was drown in the forecast for larger than expected year end stocks.

USDA pegged winter wheat area at 41.892 million acres, down from the trade’s guess of 43.501 million and last year’s 43.090 million.

The biggest negative factor was the increase in world wheat ending stocks. USDA forecast that at 185.40 million tonnes. Trade expected 182.57 million. The December report estimate was 182.78 million.

The increase in ending stocks was the result of slightly larger world production and slightly less feed consumption.

CANOLA CRUSH

The Canadian Oilseed Processor’s Association said members crushed 133,956 tonnes of canola in the week ending Jan. 8, up 0.3 percent from week before.

That represented a capacity use of 76.6 percent, down from the average to date of 79.3 percent.

So far this year, members have crushed 2.95 million tonnes, about 234,000 tonnes less than last year at the same time.

However, most of the gap was due to the slow start to this year.

EXPORTS

The Canadian Grain Commission said that in the 2013-14 crop year to Jan. 5, wheat exports totaled 6.802 million tonnes (5.719 million same point in 2012-13 and 5.831 million 2011-12.)

Durum exports total 1.877 million tonnes (1.987 million 2012-13, 1.538 million 2011-1.)

Barley exports totaled 463,220 tonnes (707,700 2012-13, 545,000 2011-12.)

Canola exports totaled 3.157 million tonnes (3.649 million 2012-13, 3.995 million 2011-12.)

Pea exports total 929,160 tonnes (840,900 2012-13 1.009 million 2011-12.)

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Jan 2014 420.80 +0.70 +0.17%

Canola Mar 2014 429.80 +0.70 +0.16%

Canola May 2014 439.00 +0.80 +0.18%

Canola Jul 2014 447.70 +1.00 +0.22%

Canola Nov 2014 461.10 +0.60 +0.13%

Milling Wheat Mar 2014 179.00 -3.00 -1.65%

Milling Wheat May 2014 184.00 -3.00 -1.60%

Milling Wheat Jul 2014 186.00 -4.00 -2.11%

Durum Wheat Mar 2014 243.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2014 247.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2014 248.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2014 146.00 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2014 148.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 2014 1303.75 +7.5 +0.58%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1278.5 +4.75 +0.37%

Soybeans May 2014 1260 +5 +0.40%

Soybeans Jul 2014 1246 +5.5 +0.44%

Soybeans Aug 2014 1209.75 +5.25 +0.44%

Soybeans Sep 2014 1145 +2.5 +0.22%

Soybean Meal Jan 2014 435.2 +2.2 +0.51%

Soybean Meal Mar 2014 413.6 -0.7 -0.17%

Soybean Meal May 2014 402.2 -0.4 -0.10%

Soybean Oil Jan 2014 37.95 +0.21 +0.56%

Soybean Oil Mar 2014 38.23 +0.27 +0.71%

Soybean Oil May 2014 38.56 +0.28 +0.73%

Corn Mar 2014 432.75 +20.75 +5.04%

Corn May 2014 440.75 +20.5 +4.88%

Corn Jul 2014 447.5 +19.75 +4.62%

Corn Sep 2014 452.75 +18.5 +4.26%

Corn Dec 2014 458.25 +17 +3.85%

Oats Mar 2014 386.5 -8.25 -2.09%

Oats May 2014 341.25 -5.5 -1.59%

Oats Jul 2014 325.25 -2.5 -0.76%

Oats Sep 2014 311.25 +1.5 +0.48%

Oats Dec 2014 304.5 +0.75 +0.25%

Wheat Mar 2014 569 -15.25 -2.61%

Wheat May 2014 575 -14.5 -2.46%

Wheat Jul 2014 580.75 -13.5 -2.27%

Wheat Sep 2014 590.5 -13.5 -2.24%

Wheat Dec 2014 604.5 -13.25 -2.14%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 620.5 -8.75 -1.39%

Spring Wheat May 2014 621 -8.25 -1.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2014 628.25 -9 -1.41%

Spring Wheat Sep 2014 636.5 -8.25 -1.28%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014 650.25 -8.75 -1.33%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 626 -13 -2.03%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 623.5 -12.5 -1.97%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 620.25 -12.75 -2.01%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 632.5 -12.5 -1.94%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2014 647.75 -11.5 -1.74

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.06 at $92.72 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 91.60 cents US, down from 92.16 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0917 Cdn.

Statistics Canada said the economy lost 45.900 jobs in December, a far cry from the expected gain of 14,000. With an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, Canada’s job picture is now worse that the U.S. where unemployment is 6.7 percent.

The U.S. labour department said only 74,000 workers were hired in that country last month, the weakest increase in three years. Economists had expected a gain of 196,000. A lot of Americans stopped looking for work, helping to lower the unemployed rate to 6.7 percent.

The weak job report led to speculation that the Federal Reserve would not be too quick to cut its stimulus programs. That supported commodity prices, which supported the Toronto market, which is heavily weighted in energy and mining companies.

In early unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite closed up 118.10 points of 0.87 percent to close at 13,747.52.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 7.71 points or 0.05 percent, to end at 16,437.05.

The S&P 500 gained 4.24 points or 0.23 percent, to close at 1,842.37.

The Nasdaq Composite added 18.471 points or 0.44 percent, to close at 4,174.665.