Stronger than expected exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of this month reduced concerns about rising stocks and lifted the price of all oilseeds Wednesday.
The oil palm tree production cycle produces higher yields in the second half of the year and typically peaks in October. But the strong exports are offsetting the production increase, Reuters reported.
“Two months ago everyone thought (palm) stocks would peak at 2.2-2.3 million tonnes. Right now we are looking at 2.1 million tonnes, maybe not even exceeding two million tonnes. These are very bullish stocks figures,” a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage told Reuters about Malaysia’s palm stocks.
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U.S. livestock: CME cattle futures hit new contract highs as supplies tighten
Chicago Mercantile Exchange live and feeder cattle futures rallied to fresh contract highs on Wednesday, as tight supplies and strong cash market prices continued to send future contracts surging, market analysts said.
Gains in canola were limited by the huge size of the canola harvest and by a stronger Canadian dollar.
Corn and wheat ended lower. U.S. corn yields appear to be better than expected. A drier forecast for the Midwest should allow U.S. farmers to make better progress with harvest. The weather is also conducive to rapid seeding of the U.S. winter wheat crop. Wheat was also under pressure as the Chicago price fell below technical support.
ICE Futures Canada lowered its milling wheat contract $3 per tonne, with no trade.
Losses in corn were limited by news that China has bought 300,000 tonnes of U.S. corn in recent days.
But the news in wheat was negative. An official with China’s largest grain importer said the country would import only three million to five million tonnes of wheat, well below most forecasts of about 7.5 million tonnes.
Wheat was also pressured by talk that India was considering lowering its export price to allow shipments of its surplus stocks. Also wheat planting weather in the Black Sea export region is better.
Oats posted another day of solid gains. Analysts say the gains are the result of logistic problems getting oats to users.
The nearby contract month is at an inverse (i.e. higher) to the deferred months indicating immediate demand.
Snow flurries are starting to enter into the long-term forecasts for the Prairies. There is a small possibility this weekend but a bigger chance of snow in the middle of next week. Accumulations are expected to be very small and should melt during the day. The snow should not cause too many problems as the Prairie harvest winds down although in delayed areas like southeastern Saskatchewan producers are hoping for sunny days.
U.S. politicians made headway on the budget/debt ceiling crisis with leaders of the two parties in Senate reaching a compromise that must be passed by the Senate and House. The bill would reopen the government and extend U.S. borrowing authority until Feb. 7. The U.S. Department of Agriculture today said that the unreleased Oct. crop production report is getting out of date. A spokesperson said the department would likely say later this week whether it would release the October report or drop it and wait until the next scheduled report Nov. 8.
A potential CN Rail strike has markets on edge. Talks are scheduled to resume on Oct. 21, with both the union and railway hopeful of avoiding a work stoppage. But if a resolution is not reached strike action could begin Oct. 29.
That is not good news given the massive size of Western Canada’s grain crop this year and the need for the handling and transportation to operate at peak efficiency to move it to ports and processors.
Oilseed analyst Oil World expects South American farmers will expand soybean acreage to almost 134 million acres, up about five million from last year.
The larger acreages could produce a larger crop if the weather co-operates, pushing the continent’s crop to 145 million tonnes.
Argentina has been dry for the past few months but conditions are favourable in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.
The dry weather in Argentina could actually lead to more soybean acres as farmers shift from corn to soy, which can be seeded later if the region gets rain.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 2013 483.70 +6.30 +1.32%
Canola Jan 2014 493.50 +6.30 +1.29%
Canola Mar 2014 501.30 +6.60 +1.33%
Canola May 2014 508.10 +7.00 +1.40%
Canola Jul 2014 513.80 +7.10 +1.40%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 234.00 -3.00 -1.27%
Milling Wheat Mar 2014 240.00 -3.00 -1.23%
Milling Wheat May 2014 246.00 +2.00 +0.82%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 247.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Mar 2014 253.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat May 2014 257.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 152.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Mar 2014 154.00 unch 0.00%
Barley May 2014 155.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 2013 1276.5 +9.5 +0.75%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1274.75 +8.75 +0.69%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1263.25 +7.5 +0.60%
Soybeans May 2014 1248.75 +4.75 +0.38%
Soybeans Jul 2014 1246.75 +6.25 +0.50%
Soybeans Aug 2014 1236.25 +6.5 +0.53%
Soybean Meal Dec 2013 403.8 +1.4 +0.35%
Soybean Meal Jan 2014 399.7 +0.4 +0.10%
Soybean Meal Mar 2014 392 -0.7 -0.18%
Soybean Oil Dec 2013 41.37 +0.71 +1.75%
Soybean Oil Jan 2014 41.67 +0.71 +1.73%
Soybean Oil Mar 2014 42.06 +0.71 +1.72%
Corn Dec 2013 442.75 -0.75 -0.17%
Corn Mar 2014 455.25 -0.5 -0.11%
Corn May 2014 463.5 -0.75 -0.16%
Corn Jul 2014 470.5 -1.25 -0.26%
Corn Sep 2014 476 -1.5 -0.31%
Oats Dec 2013 336 +5 +1.51%
Oats Mar 2014 312.25 +1.25 +0.40%
Oats May 2014 308 +5 +1.65%
Oats Jul 2014 302.75 +5.75 +1.94%
Oats Sep 2014 301.75 +5.75 +1.94%
Wheat Dec 2013 681.5 -4.25 -0.62%
Wheat Mar 2014 691 -4.5 -0.65%
Wheat May 2014 694.5 -5 -0.71%
Wheat Jul 2014 684.25 -4.5 -0.65%
Wheat Sep 2014 689.5 -5 -0.72%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 742.5 -7.75 -1.03%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 751.75 -7.5 -0.99%
Spring Wheat May 2014 757 -6.25 -0.82%
Spring Wheat Jul 2014 756.5 -6.5 -0.85%
Spring Wheat Sep 2014 756 -6.75 -0.88%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 744.75 -11.5 -1.52%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 743.25 -10.5 -1.39%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 742.25 -9.25 -1.23%
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2014 727.5 -7.25 -0.99%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2014 734.5 -7.25 -0.98%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $1.08 at $102.29 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.67 cents US, up from 96.42 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0345 Cdn.
Signs that the U.S. will avert a debt ceiling crisis sent U.S. stock prices soaring. Weaker gold company shares limited gains on the TSX, as investors bailed out of the safe haven once it appeared U.S. lawmakers would compromise.
The TSX composite rose 25.75 points or 0.20 percent to 12,957.21.
The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 201.39 points, or 1.33 percent, to 15,369.40.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 23.24 points, or 1.37 percent, at 1,721.30.
The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 45.42 points, or 1.20 percent, at 3,839.43.
