Today’s USDA report had little impact on canola futures, but a loonie that jumped more than one cent pushed the oilseed lower.
The biggest news in the USDA report concerned wheat, but more on that later.
Generally good growing conditions also weighed on canola, although temperatures in Saskatchewan and Manitoba today are too warm. However, cooler weather is expected Friday in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The shift from warm to cooler weather has prompted a lot of severe thunderstorm warnings.
November canola closed down $10.50 per tonne at $537.10.
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U.S. grains: Soy futures top one-week high, US crop outlook limits gains
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures hit their highest level in more than a week on Thursday as technical buying helped the market recover from a three-month low reached on Monday, analysts said.
The loonie rose and the U.S. buck fell after U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke on Wednesday added clarification to the Fed’s plan to scale back its quantitative easing program, indicating the bank won’t pull the plug on its stimulus soon.
He said “a highly accommodative policy is needed for the foreseeable future.”
That drove stocks higher and the U.S. dollar down.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports today were a bit bearish for new crop corn and soybeans and bullish for wheat.
However, concerns about dry weather later this month when corn is setting its yield dominated traders’ concerns and crop futures in Chicago closed up.
Forecasts turned a little wetter for the Midwest in the near term, but remain dry toward the end of the month, when the delayed corn crop will be flowering. Although there was lots of rain in the spring, the western Midwest has turned a bit drier in recent weeks.
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The report showed higher than expected new crop year end stocks for corn and soybeans. The forecast of the size of the winter wheat crop was also larger than expected, although the spring wheat and durum forecasts were smaller than expected.
New crop corn ending stocks ere pegged at 1.959 billion bushels, above the June outlook for 1.949 billion and above an average of analysts’ estimates for 1.898 billion.
The big change on the wheat side was USDA’s increase in China’s wheat demand, which it said was due to increased feed demand.
China’s wheat imports for 2013-14 rose five million tonnes to 8.5 million.
USDA also lowered by about 5.4 million tonnes its estimate of the amount of wheat carried into the new crop year, due mostly to higher feed wheat consumption in China.
The result was that stocks at the end of 2013-14 were dropped to 172.38 million tonnes, down from 181.25 million in the June report.
That means that global wheat stocks will decline about two million tonnes over the year.
USDA believes the U.S. will supply a lot of China’s wheat needs and it lowered U.S. ending stocks of wheat for 2013-14 to 576 million bushels, down from its forecast of 659 million in the June report and below analysts’ estimates for 632 million.
USDA raised its projection for global soybean oil production to 44.62 million tonnes from 44.58 million and increased its 2013-14 ending stocks forecast to 3.45 million tonnes from 3.31 million.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2013 609.10 -10.50 -1.69%
Canola Nov 2013 537.10 -10.50 -1.92%
Canola Jan 2014 542.90 -10.20 -1.84%
Canola Mar 2014 548.00 -9.40 -1.69%
Canola May 2014 545.60 -7.70 -1.39%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 282.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 282.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 282.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 305.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 307.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 312.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2013 1601.25 +9.5 +0.60%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1472 +7.25 +0.49%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1332.5 +3.5 +0.26%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1290.75 +6 +0.47%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1295 +5.5 +0.43%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1292.75 +6 +0.47%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 525.7 +5.2 +1.00%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 458 +8.3 +1.85%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 420.9 +8 +1.94%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 46.49 -0.49 -1.04%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 46.53 -0.49 -1.04%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 46.32 -0.42 -0.90%
Corn Jul 2013 716.75 +7 +0.99%
Corn Sep 2013 560.75 +7 +1.26%
Corn Dec 2013 527 +5.5 +1.05%
Corn Mar 2014 539.25 +5.75 +1.08%
Corn May 2014 546.75 +6 +1.11%
Oats Jul 2013 393.25 -0.25 -0.06%
Oats Sep 2013 356.25 -0.25 -0.07%
Oats Dec 2013 346.5 -1.25 -0.36%
Oats Mar 2014 352.5 -1.75 -0.49%
Oats May 2014 358.25 -1.75 -0.49%
Wheat Jul 2013 679.25 +7.25 +1.08%
Wheat Sep 2013 683 +4 +0.59%
Wheat Dec 2013 696.5 +3.75 +0.54%
Wheat Mar 2014 709.5 +3.25 +0.46%
Wheat May 2014 715.75 +3.75 +0.53%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 796.5 -1 -0.13%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 767.25 -1.5 -0.20%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 778.75 -1.25 -0.16%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 792 -2.75 -0.35%
Spring Wheat May 2014 800.75 -2.5 -0.31%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 711.5 -0.5 -0.07%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 708.5 -0.5 -0.07%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 726.25 -1.5 -0.21%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 738.75 -2 -0.27%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 745.5 -2.25 -0.30%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $1.61 at $104.91 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.26 cents US, up from 95.14 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0389 Cdn.
Stock markets jumped higher on Bernanke’s message.
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 107.41 points, or 0.87 percent, at 12,414.34, after reaching 12,441.16, its highest in more than a month.
Nasdaq ended at its highest close since October 2000.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 169.72 points or 1.11 percent, to 15,461.38.
The S&P 500 gained 22.46 points or 1.36 percent, to 1,675.08.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 57.55 points or 1.63 percent, to 3,578.3.
