Stronger dollar affects canola futures

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were weaker Monday, as a strong Canadian dollar and weaker soy oil values weighed on prices.

The Canadian dollar has hovered around 76 U.S. cents for the past few days, which has made canola less attractive to buyers.

A Winnipeg-based trader explained that speculative long traders bailing out of contracts could cause canola values to hit lower than C$440.

Statistics Canada will release its field crop estimates on Thursday, which will provide some direction to markets.

There were 12,052 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 15,417 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 6,024 contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were steady to slightly lower on Monday, as markets wait for direction. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) will be released on Thursday.

Some analysts are calling for a decline in yield of approximately 1.3 bushels per acre, which would be supportive for values. However, large seeded acreage in Brazil could counter that support.

According to a recent report, soybean exports increased by nearly 10 per cent in August. Deliveries consisted of mostly old-crop contract soybeans.

Approximately 906,000 tonnes of soybeans were exported last week. That’s down nearly 30 per cent from the previous week, and 2.3 per cent lower than this week last year.

CORN futures were steady on Monday, recovering after hitting fresh contract lows last week.

The USDA reported an export sale of 651,670 tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning. Most of that order is for the 2019/2020 crop, with 60,000 tonnes ordered for the 2020/2021 crop.

Corn demand remains in flux, as the U.S. biofuel industry has seen over 15 plants close or drastically cut production.

WHEAT futures were steady to higher on Monday, despite large worldwide stocks keeping a lid on values. A recent report pegged carryout volumes at the end of May to be above 1 billion bushels.

Though global wheat stocks remain very large, Australia’s wheat crop may be threatened by a drought.

Wheat futures found some strength from traders covering short positions ahead of the WASDE on Thursday.

The USDA reported wheat shipments of approximately 402,486 tonnes last week. That’s a drop of 27.94 per cent from the previous week, and about nine per cent lower than this week last year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up $1.33 at US$57.85 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.02 cents, up from 75.91 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3155.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 19  439.80s  -3.00  -0.68%

Canola Jan 20  447.70s  -3.00  -0.67%

Canola Mar 20  454.90s  -2.90  -0.63%

Canola May 20  461.40s  -2.70  -0.58%

Canola Jul 20  467.70s  -2.50  -0.53%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Sep 19  845-0s  unch  unch

Soybean Nov 19  857-6s  unch  unch

Soybean Jan 20  872-0s  unch  unch

Soybean Mar 20  885-6s  -0-2  -0.03%

Soybean May 20  898-0s  +0-4  +0.06%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 19  288.5s  +1.3  +0.45%

Soybean Meal Oct 19  290.4s  +1.1  +0.38%

Soybean Meal Dec 19  294.0s  +1.0  +0.34%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 19  28.26s  -0.22  -0.77%

Soybean Oil Oct 19  28.26s  -0.20  -0.70%

Soybean Oil Dec 19  28.45s  -0.20  -0.70%

 

Corn Sep 19  340-6s  -1-6  -0.51%

Corn Dec 19  354-2s  -1-2  -0.35%

Corn Mar 20  367-2s  -1-4  -0.41%

Corn May 20  376-6s  -0-6  -0.20%

Corn Jul 20  384-2s  -0-4  -0.13%

 

Oats Sep 19  276-4s  +0-2  +0.09%

Oats Dec 19  269-2s  +0-2  +0.09%

Oats Mar 20  271-2s  +0-6  +0.28%

Oats May 20  269-6s  +0-6  +0.28%

Oats Jul 20  271-2s  +1-6  +0.65%

 

Wheat Sep 19  474-4s  +14-2  +3.10%

Wheat Dec 19  474-4s  +10-6  +2.32%

Wheat Mar 20  479-0s  +8-4  +1.81%

Wheat May 20  481-4s  +5-6  +1.21%

Wheat Jul 20  484-0s  +5-0  +1.04%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 19  477-2s  +2-4  +0.53%

Spring Wheat Dec 19  496-6s  +2-4  +0.51%

Spring Wheat Mar 20  511-4s  +2-4  +0.49%

Spring Wheat May 20  522-4s  +2-2  +0.43%

Spring Wheat Jul 20  533-2s  +2-2  +0.42%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19  380-0s  +4-6  +1.27%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19  398-0s  +4-6  +1.21%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20  412-0s  +4-0  +0.98%

Hard Red Wheat May 20  422-0s  +3-4  +0.84%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20  431-6s  +4-0  +0.94%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 19  94.200s  -0.675  -0.71%

Live Cattle Dec 19  99.175s  -0.575  -0.58%

Live Cattle Feb 20  106.075s  -0.325  -0.31%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 19  132.825s  -0.525  -0.39%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19  129.825s  -1.075  -0.82%

Feeder Cattle Nov 19  128.800s  -1.575  -1.21%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 19  62.600s  -0.900  -1.42%

Lean Hogs Dec 19  59.950s  -2.525  -4.04%

Lean Hogs Feb 20  68.275s  -2.575  -3.63%

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