PARIS (Reuters) – Competition from Russian wheat on
international markets, notably Africa, prompted French
consultancy Strategie Grains to reduce further its forecast for
European Union soft wheat exports in the current 2017/18 season.
The analyst projected 2017/18 soft wheat exports from the
European Union at 21.6 million tonnes, down 750,000 tonnes from
last month and 2.5 million tonnes below last season.
“Russia continues to dominate global wheat export trade –
with shipments way in excess of all competitors, especially the
EU, and breaking one record after another,” it said in a monthly
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Additional pressure came from Argentina which confirmed its
return as a major exporter in 2017/18 with large shipments to
Asia and Algeria.
Strategie Grain’s lower soft wheat export forecast mainly
affects France with a reduction of 300,000 tonnes to 8.8 million
and Romania, with a similar cut to 3.5 million tonnes.
Polish exports were also revised down due to a sluggish pace
of exports so far and Polish farmers’ reluctance to sell.
Strategie Grains was more optimistic for next season. In its
first forecast for 2018/19, it predicted EU soft wheat exports
would rebound by 2.8 million tonnes to 24.4 million.
“Even with Russian exports hitting a potential new record
(38 million tonnes), the scale of world demand as forecast today
exporting countries will need to be mobilised,” it said.
The projection was based on a forecast of India importing
around 4 million tonnes of soft wheat and Iran 2 million tonnes.
In the EU, France should regain some markets in North
Africa, where it had been challenged by Argentine and Russian
wheat, bringing total French exports to nearly 9.9 million
tonnes, up 1.1 million on year.
Germany and Poland should also see a rebound in exports in
2018/19, mainly in Saudi Arabia where it has suffered from stiff
competition from Baltic wheat, Strategie Grains said.
The consultancy forecast a soft wheat carryout stock in the
EU in June 2019 at 12 million tonnes, down 1.5 million from
2017/18.
“This equates to a situation of equilibrium between supply
and demand in all countries except Poland and France, for which
potential surpluses persist,” it said.
