PARIS, July 25 (Reuters) – Consultancy Strategie Grains has again cut its estimate for this year’s European soft wheat crop, which is now expected to be below 130 million tonnes versus 132.4 million tonnes estimated in early July, it said on Wednesday.
This would be the lowest soft wheat harvest in the 28-member bloc since 2012, analyst Laurine Simon told Reuters. The EU harvested 141.8 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2017.
Dry and hot weather in recent weeks in northern and central parts of Europe have damaged crops, with mounting concerns over the final size of the harvest sending Euronext wheat futures to three-year highs on Wednesday.
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Increasing worries about output in other major exporters, including the competing Black Sea region, have also supported global wheat prices.
Strategie Grains did not give a precise number for this year’s EU soft wheat crop, which it reserves for clients, but said the cut was mainly due to reductions in its outlook for the German, Danish and Swedish harvests.
The consultancy now expects the German soft wheat crop at 20.7 million tonnes, down from 22.8 million estimated in early July.
Germany is the European Union’s second largest grain producer after France. Its crops wilted under the hottest spring weather since 1881 and an unusually dry June and July.
Simon said Danish and Swedish crops were now at “very low levels” due to the drought hitting Scandinavia.
The widely followed research kept its forecast of 2018 French soft wheat production at 33.2 million tonnes.
“The downward revision is maybe not over for late harvesting regions. With a harvest below 130 million tonnes, EU supply and demand is getting really tighter and exportable surplus is melting a little further,” a European trader said, adding that he expected European wheat futures to remain firm.
The EU’s crop monitoring service, MARS, cut its soft wheat yield forecast for the third month in a row on Monday, citing exceptionally dry and hot weather in north and central Europe with little relief in sight
