Statistics Canada forecasts a 15.2 million tonne canola crop, more than a million tonnes less than the average of analysts’ pre report expectations.
Canola futures are trading higher Wednesday morning while U.S. crop markets are mostly down on profit taking and new results from the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour that were not as bad as the first day’s.
The StatsCan crop production report, based on surveys with more than 15,000 farmers carried out from July 25 to Aug. 1., pegged the average canola yield at 32.8 bushels per acre.
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A Reuters pre-report poll said analysts on average expected an average canola yield of 34.7 bu. per acre and production of 16.4 million tonnes. The range of guesses was 15.5 million to 17.1 million tonnes.
A 15.2 million tonne crop would still be a record and would be well above last year’s production of 14.2 million tonnes.
At 11:50 a.m. CST November canola was trading at $635.50 up $ 6.00 or 0.95 percent.
StatsCan pegged Manitoba canola yield at 31.4 bu. per acre, Saskatchewan at 30.5 bu./ac and Alberta at 37.3 bu./ac.
Wheat production appears to be faring better than canola, although the durum crop is smaller than pre report expectations.
The agency pegged all wheat production at 27.01 million tonnes, equal with expectations and up from 25.3 million last year.
StatsCan pegged spring wheat production at 19.058 million tonnes, up 5.7 percent from 18.03 million last year.
Winter wheat is 3.682 million tonnes, up 20.4 percent from 3.058.
StatsCan says the durum crop is 4.273 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent from 4.172 million last year. The Reuters poll ranged from 4.6 to 5.1 million to average 4.8 million.
The ICE Futures Canada durum futures contract has not traded this morning.
Oats is 2.994 million tonnes, down 0.1 percent fro 2.997 million last year. That was spot on the Reuters poll average of three million tonnes.
Chicago oats futures are trading at $3.955, down 1.5 cents or 0.38 percent, in keeping with generally slightly lower crop prices in Chicago.
Barley is 9.51 million tonnes, up 22.6 percent from 7.76 million last year.
That is more than the average expectation of nine million tonnes, but there is no reaction on the ICE Futures Canada contract so far.
Flax is 547,000 tonnes, up 48.4 percent from 368,000 tonnes. That is right on expectations.
The dry peas crop is 2.98 million tonnes, up 41 percent from 2.116 million last year. The average trade guess was 3.1 million tonnes.
Fall rye is 312,000 tonnes, up 60 percent from 195,000 tonnes last year.
The report does not have a national number for lentil production. It pegged Saskatchewan lentil crop at 1.304 million tonnes, down from 1.455 million last year.
