Solid demand and rising soybeans lift canola Tuesday

Canola and most other grains rose Tuesday on user demand and support from bullish U.S. crop markets.

Weather is mostly conducive to good crop development in Canada and the U.S. However there are some complaints that recent cool weather slowed canola development in Alberta and the Manitoba crop report talks about insect pressure in the crop. Areas near Prince Albert, Sask., received too much rain over the weekend.

Here is a map of the rain forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.

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The Canadian dollar was weaker, adding support to canola values.

The USDA reported Monday that soybean seeding was 85 percent planted, slightly behind what the trade expected, and behind the five-year average of 91 percent. Emergence was at 66 percent, down from the five-year average of 80 percent.

Oilseeds were also supported by a monthly U.S. soybean crush number that was higher than expected, considering tight stocks.

USDA said the winter wheat harvest was 11 percent complete as of June 16, below last year’s 51 percent and the five-year average of 25 percent. There is talk some very poor hard red winter wheat crops won’t be harvested.

Russia’s wheat harvest is starting earlier than normal and that could push cheap wheat onto the world market sooner than normal.

The market eagerly awaits next week’s seeded acreage reports from Statistics Canada and USDA. Expectations are that the U.S. corn acreage number will have to be reduced. Also the spring wheat number in North Dakota will likely be trimmed.

Canadian seeded acreage will also likely be less than expected earlier this spring, due to moist conditions in the eastern part of the prairies.

The strong basis paid on American corn and soybeans indicates that old crop stocks could be tighter than what USDA is forecasting.

Reuters reports that Oil World believes the U.S. will import about 250,000 tonnes of soybeans in June and July because of the tight old crop situation.

Reuters also reported that improved canola crops in Germany and Poland will make up for poor crops in France and Britain. Oil World believes the European canola crop will rise to 19.7 million tonnes, up from 19.3 million last year. It will still need to import rapeseed, but perhaps not as much as in 2012-13. Most of its imports come from Russia and Ukraine.

Early reports of India’s monsoon are that rain is moving across the country in record time, signaling good prospects for this year’s summer crop.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2013 605.20 +7.20 +1.20%

Canola Nov 2013 553.90 +5.40 +0.98%

Canola Jan 2014 556.00 +5.20 +0.94%

Canola Mar 2014 554.20 +5.70 +1.04%

Canola May 2014 551.20 +6.70 +1.23%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2013 299.40 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2013 1510.75 -1.75 -0.12%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1435.5 +0.25 +0.02%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1337.25 +3.5 +0.26%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1289.75 +4.25 +0.33%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1295.25 +4 +0.31%

Soybeans Mar 2014 1295.25 +0.5 +0.04%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 451.8 +2.7 +0.60%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 422.7 +1.9 +0.45%

Soybean Meal Sep 2013 401.6 +2.8 +0.70%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.81 -0.03 -0.06%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.76 -0.04 -0.08%

Soybean Oil Sep 2013 48.41 -0.11 -0.23%

Corn Jul 2013 673.25 +4.75 +0.71%

Corn Sep 2013 589 +10.25 +1.77%

Corn Dec 2013 550.5 +12 +2.23%

Corn Mar 2014 561.25 +12 +2.18%

Corn May 2014 568.5 +11.75 +2.11%

Oats Jul 2013 397.75 +1.25 +0.32%

Oats Sep 2013 388.75 +1.5 +0.39%

Oats Dec 2013 387.75 +2.25 +0.58%

Oats Mar 2014 390 +2 +0.52%

Oats May 2014 392.25 +2 +0.51%

Wheat Jul 2013 687.5 +7 +1.03%

Wheat Sep 2013 694.75 +7 +1.02%

Wheat Dec 2013 708 +7 +1.00%

Wheat Mar 2014 721.75 +7 +0.98%

Wheat May 2014 732.25 +6.5 +0.90%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 799 -1.25 -0.16%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 780.25 -1.25 -0.16%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 788.5 -1 -0.13%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 801.75 -2 -0.25%

Spring Wheat May 2014 809.25 -0.75 -0.09%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 719.25 +5.5 +0.77%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 721.5 +5.75 +0.80%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 737 +5.25 +0.72%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 750 +5.25 +0.70%

KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 758.25 +4.5 +0.60%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 67 cents at $98.44 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.95 cents US, down from 98.27 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0209 Cdn.

Investors await a statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve following its two day meeting that ends Wednesday.

The market is looking for guidance on whether the economy is doing well enough to cause the Fed to trim its stimulus program.

In unofficial early tallies —

The TSX composite index rose 78.56 points or 0.64 percent to 12,367.46.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 138.76 points, or 0.91 percent, at 15,318.61.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 12.76 points, or 0.78 percent, at 1,651.80.

The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 30.05 points, or 0.87 percent, at 3,482.18.

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