Canola futures jumped higher Thursday and U.S. crop prices soared as the U.S. Midwest heat wave continues without relief from rain.
July canola closed at $667.40, up $19.10.
November canola closed at $617.40, up $13.10.
• The noon weather forecast showed less rain would fall next week in the Midwest than had been expected and that set off a new round of buying. More corn reaches the yield-setting tasseling stage each day, and in this heat the yield is permanently reduced. Commodity Weather Group today estimated the U.S. 2012 corn yield at 152.2 bushels per acre. That is near the low end of analysts’ forecasts, which are being revised downward every few days.
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Alberta crop conditions improve: report
Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.
• Some analysts, however, warn that if rain begins to arrive in the U.S. Midwest next week and continues through July into August, the critical month for soybean yield establishment, then there is potential for this weather rally in oilseeds to quickly unravel.
• Brazil’s government increased its estimate of the recently harvested corn crop there to 69.5 million tonnes, from 67.8 million. The soy estimate was unchanged.
• But Ukraine’s agriculture minister lowered his estimate of that country’s corn crop to 23-24 million tonnes, down from 25-26 million estimated in June. Summer heat is eroding yields.
Ukraine’s state weather bureau has a lower estimate, pegging corn production at 20-21 million tonnes, down from the bureau’s previous forecast of 22 million.
• The Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report said crop development has been helped by recent warm weather and the majority of crops are now in the normal stage.
As of July 2,50 percent of canola is in the rosette state and 24 percent is flowering.
For spring cereals, 61 percent is in the jointed to shot blade stage.
Recent severe weather has caused damage and overall 27 percent of crop areas have excess moisture. Warm, dry weather is needed.
Alberta yesterday reported that 84.8 percent of canola was in good-excellent condition as of June 26.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jul 12 $667.40, up $19.10 +2.95%
Canola Nov 12 $617.40, up $13.10 +2.17%
Canola Jan 13 $621.30, up $13.90 +2.29%
Canola Mar 13 $621.80, up $14.50 +2.39%
The best cash bid in the par region the previous day was $656.03 per tonne, said ICE Futures Canada.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 74. An index above 70 is considered in oversold territory.
Western Barley Jul 12 $237.00, unchanged
Western Barley Oct 12 $226.00, up $5.00 +2.26%
Milling Wheat Oct 12 $301.00, up $16.30 +5.73%
Milling Wheat Dec 12 $308.50, up $16.50 +5.65%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $318.50, up $16.50 +5.46%
Durum Wheat Oct 12 $295.50, up $19.00 +6.87%
Durum Wheat Dec 12 $300.00, up $19.00 +6.76%
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $306.60, up $19.00 +6.61%
Barley Oct 12 $211.00, up $10.00 +4.98%
Barley Dec 12 $213.70, up $10.00 +4.91%
Barley Mar 13 $216.70, up $10.00 +4.84%
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Jul 12 $16.265, up 54.25 cents +3.45%
Soybeans (P) Aug 12 $15.83, up 53.5 +3.50%
Soybeans (P) Sep 12 $15.515, up 53.5 +3.57%
Soybeans (P) Nov 12 $15.265, up 51.75 +3.51%
Corn Jul 12 7.68, up 49.25+6.85%)
Corn Sep 12 7.0875, up 34.75 (+5.16%)
Corn Dec 12 7.085, up 34.0 (+5.04%)
Oats (P) Jul 12 $3.56, up 7.25 +2.08%
Oats (P) Sep 12 $3.6525, up 14.25+4.06%
Oats (P) Dec 12 $3.64, up 7.25 +2.03%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Jul 12 $9.385, up 52.5 +5.93%
Spring Wheat Sep 12 $9.3075, up 33.25 +3.70%
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $9.40, up 34.75 +3.84%
Nearby crude oil in New York fell 44 cents to $87.22 per barrel.
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the Canadian dollar was 98.71 cents US, little changed from 98.74 the previous day.
The U.S. dollar was $1.0131 Cdn.
European central banks and China’s central bank lowered interest rates as expected in an attempt to stimulate their weakening economies, but that did not impress traders.
And better than expected weekly job creation in the U.S. caused traders to wonder if that will cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to delay stimulus action.
In early tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX composite index fell 96.96 points, or 0.8 percent, to 11,816.91. The loss ended a streak of six straight increases, the index’s longest rally in about a year.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 7.53 points, or 0.06 percent, to 12,951.35.
The S&P 500 Index dipped 0.87 point, or 0.06 percent, to 1,373.15.
The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 10.60 points, or 0.36 percent, to 2,986.68.
