The U.S. Federal Reserve announcement Wednesday that it would wind down its stimulus program, weak China economic data and a more benign weather forecast in the U.S. pressured crop futures lower, including canola.
Losses incanola were limited by slow crop development and excess rain in some parts of Western Canada. The Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report issued today said seeding is at 98 percent complete. However 45 percent of canola is behind the normal pace of development. The implication is flowering during hot weather and a late harvest with increased risk of quality downgrades.
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Losses in canola were also limited by the falling loonie, which dropped more than 1.5 cents relative to the U.S. buck.
U.S. crop market were pressured lower by a rising U.S. dollar and a general exodus from commodities as a result of the Fed chair Ben Bernanke’s statement about the central bank’s plan to scale back its $85 billion a month bond buying program that has been stimulating the U.S. economy. He said the economy is improving and if it continues the bank would start scaling back its program late this year, with an eye to ending it in mid 2014.
U.S. crop futures were also pressured by a changing forecast. A weather forecast model yesterday that indicated a heat wave in the Midwest at the end of June has now changed and the heat is not expected.
Additional pressure stemmed from economic data from top soy buyer China, where the flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index hinted at weakness in the world’s second-largest economy.
Exceptionaly heavy rains in western Alberta today are causing creeks and rivers to overflow.
In fact above average rain in the past 30 days is causing problems in several places on the Canadian prairies, particularly western Alberta and the northern Saskatchewan grainbelt.
North Dakota has also been soggy. Expect a lot of prevented planting in that state when the USDA issues its planting report June 28.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Jul 2013 606.80 -1.90 -0.31%
Canola Nov 2013 556.50 -2.40 -0.43%
Canola Jan 2014 560.00 -3.10 -0.55%
Canola Mar 2014 559.70 -2.70 -0.48%
Canola May 2014 557.10 -2.20 -0.39%
Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Milling Wheat Dec 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2013 299.40 unch 0.00%
Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2013 199.00 unch 0.00%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans Jul 2013 1497.5 -25.5 -1.67%
Soybeans Aug 2013 1420.75 -26.25 -1.81%
Soybeans Sep 2013 1325.5 -27.25 -2.01%
Soybeans Nov 2013 1285 -25.75 -1.96%
Soybeans Jan 2014 1288.5 -26.25 -2.00%
Soybeans Mar 2014 1283.75 -28.75 -2.19%
Soybean Meal Jul 2013 445.6 -8 -1.76%
Soybean Meal Aug 2013 419.1 -7.4 -1.74%
Soybean Meal Sep 2013 398.7 -7.4 -1.82%
Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.4 -0.95 -1.93%
Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.34 -0.95 -1.93%
Soybean Oil Sep 2013 47.96 -0.97 -1.98%
Corn Jul 2013 673.25 -9 -1.32%
Corn Sep 2013 598.25 -11.75 -1.93%
Corn Dec 2013 560.5 -10 -1.75%
Corn Mar 2014 571 -10.25 -1.76%
Corn May 2014 578.25 -10 -1.70%
Oats Jul 2013 394.75 -8.5 -2.11%
Oats Sep 2013 386 -6.5 -1.66%
Oats Dec 2013 384.75 -5.25 -1.35%
Oats Mar 2014 387.75 -6.5 -1.65%
Oats May 2014 390 -6.5 -1.64%
Wheat Jul 2013 700.5 -6.5 -0.92%
Wheat Sep 2013 707.75 -6.5 -0.91%
Wheat Dec 2013 719.75 -7.25 -1.00%
Wheat Mar 2014 733.5 -7.5 -1.01%
Wheat May 2014 742.75 -8.5 -1.13%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Jul 2013 814 +0.5 +0.06%
Spring Wheat Sep 2013 794 -0.75 -0.09%
Spring Wheat Dec 2013 802 -1.5 -0.19%
Spring Wheat Mar 2014 815.5 -0.5 -0.06%
Spring Wheat May 2014 821.5 -1 -0.12%
Kansas City
KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 737 -2.75 -0.37%
KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 738 -2.5 -0.34%
KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 753 -2.5 -0.33%
KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 766 -2.5 -0.33%
KCBT Red Wheat May 2014 773.5 -3.25 -0.42%
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York dropped $2.84 at $95.40 US per barrel.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.27 cents US, down from 98.16 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0387 Cdn.
In early, unofficial tallies —
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 299.72 points, or 2.44 percent, at 11,968.57.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 352.03 points or 2.33 percent, to close at 14,760.16,
The S&P 500 lost 40.58 points or 2.49 percent, to 1,588.35.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 78.57 points or 2.28 percent, to close at 3,364.64.
