MOSCOW (Reuters) — Russia, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters, is likely to harvest around 86 million tonnes of grain next year, down from 89.5 million this year, Sovecon agriculture analysts said on Thursday.
The forecast is only provisional and based on the effect of unseasonable autumn weather on Russia’s winter sowing campaign.
“The winter wheat conditions this year could never be called traditional,” Andrei Sizov Sr., CEO and president of SovEcon think tank, told a conference of grain traders, growers and analysts.
While this year’s winter sowing campaign was delayed by rains in September, abnormally warm weather in October and November has allowed planting to continue.
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“If we go through this period (December) normally without anomalies and normal snow cover, then we will have a normal scenario, when we can think about a harvest of 86-90 million tonnes,” Sizov added.
Earlier in November the Agriculture Ministry said Russia would sow about 36.3-36.6 million acres with winter grains this year, below the 16.4 million hectares originally planned.
Russia, which has enjoyed a better crop this year after last year’s drought is expected to harvest 89.5 million tonnes of grain after drying and cleaning this year, including 51.1 million tonnes of wheat, Sizov said.
In 2012 the country, historically the world’s third-biggest wheat exporter, harvested 70.9 million tonnes of grain, including 37.7 million tonnes of wheat.
Sizov raised the 2013-14 grain export forecast to 21 million tonnes, from the previously expected 20 million tonnes, including 14.5 million tonnes of wheat.
Meanwhile, SovEcon kept its 2013-14 import forecast unchanged at one million tonnes of grain, including 0.7 million tonnes of wheat.
